Tense momentQuite something to see the uncertainty in the market. Earlier in the week someone bought 400,000 shares at the US$1.60 ask--a show of belief in where this is going.
But then it was the very next day that someone dumped almost 1.9 million shares at $1.25. That seller clearly wanted out at whatever price they could get. But then later the same day the stock was hopping back up to $1.53 with a $1.60 ask, I think.
If Crystallex is true to what they were recently quoted by Reuters as saying, they will be preparing a credit bid which is higher than Elliott's $7.3 billion. If / when that comes out, probably GRZ will at least double on the news.
It's possible GRZ now doesn't want to take the lead (highest profile) position in a credit bid because of all this stuff with the CRA going after them. Might be they'll take a lower-profile position in a joint credit bid with Crystallex or Red Tree or both. Pure guess on my part.
Is it possible creditors that are ahead of GRZ will try to buy Citgo for such a low price that they cut GRZ out of the proceeds? Say, a $6 billion bid?
I suppose it is POSSIBLE. The other creditors aren't in this for brotherly love. And the current low level of refining spreads ain't helping.
But I suspect that if other creditors push in that direction they will simply open the door for someone else to grab the bidder protection (with a higher bid), possible GRZ and someone else. You want to remember the $3.5 billion in liquidity on Citgo's balance sheet. These are not big prices for a company that did $3 billion in cash flow in 2023 and probably will again at some point.