Nuvista Energy Ltd T.NVA

Nat gas weekly

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Market Highlights:

(For the week ending Wednesday, December 18, 2024)

 

Prices

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

• Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price fell 9 cents from $3.11 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $3.02/MMBtu yesterday. 
• Henry Hub futures price: The price of the January 2025 NYMEX contract was essentially unchanged from $3.378/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.374/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging January 2025 through December 2025 futures contracts declined 5 cents to $3.232/MMBtu. 
• Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices fell at most locations this report week (Wednesday, December 11 to Wednesday, December 18). Price changes ranged from a decrease of $6.88 at the Algonquin Citygate to an increase of 7 cents at the Waha Hub.
  • Prices decreased in the Northeast this report week. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price fell $6.88 from $11.90/MMBtu last Wednesday to $5.02/MMBtu yesterday after reaching an intraweek high on December 12 of $12.77/MMBtu. On December 13, Tennessee Gas Pipeline lifted a force majeure at a compressor station near Charlton City, Massachusetts, on the pipeline segment that moves natural gas eastbound to the Boston area. Repairs began December 10 and reduced available pipeline capacity by about 21% (0.2 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]). At the Transco Zone 6 NY trading point for New York City, the price fell 99 cents from $4.09/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.10/MMBtu yesterday. The price at Eastern Gas South near Appalachian Basin production activities fell 7 cents from $2.85/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.78/MMBtu yesterday. 
  • Price changes on the West Coast were mixed this report week. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 11 cents from $3.81/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.70/MMBtu yesterday. At PG&E Citygate in Northern California, the price rose 3 cents from $3.62/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.65/MMBtu yesterday. The average temperature in the San Jose Area fell 2°F this report week to 54° F, leading to 78 heating degree days (HDDs), 17 more HDDs than last week. At Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, the price fell 72 cents from $3.47/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.75/MMBtu yesterday. The average temperature in the Seattle City Area rose 2° F this report week, resulting in 138 HDDs, 13 HDDs fewer than last week and 27 HDDs fewer than normal. Total natural gas consumption in the Pacific Northwest fell 13% (0.4 Bcf/d) this report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. 
• International futures prices: International natural gas futures prices decreased this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia decreased by $1.26/MMBtu to a weekly average of $13.78/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands decreased $1.38/MMBtu to a weekly average of $12.73/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending December 20, 2023), the prices were $13.30/MMBtu in East Asia and $10.89/MMBtu at TTF.
• Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 8 cents/MMBtu, averaging $7.42/MMBtu for the week ending December 18. Ethane prices rose 1% week over week, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel increased 2%, narrowing the ethane premium to natural gas by 3%. The ethylene spot price fell 1% week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane decreased 1%. Propane prices increased 1% and Brent crude oil prices increased 2% week over week, widening the propane discount to crude oil by 5%. Normal butane prices rose 2%, isobutane prices were relatively unchanged, and natural gasoline prices rose 2%. 

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Supply and Demand

• Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 0.3% (0.3 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew by 0.2% (0.2 Bcf/d) to average 104.0 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada decreased by 7.2% (0.5 Bcf/d) from last week. 
• Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 1.5% (1.5 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumed in the residential and commercial sector decreased by 0.2% (0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 3.8% (1.4 Bcf/d), and consumption in the industrial sector decreased by 0.5% (0.1 Bcf/d) week over week. Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 3.6% (0.2 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 14.3 Bcf/d, or 0.1 Bcf/d higher than last week.

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Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

• Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals increased 0.1 Bcf/d from last week to 14.3 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana increased by 1.8% (0.1 Bcf/d) to 8.5 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas decreased by 1.1% (0.1 Bcf/d) to 4.5 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged.
• Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-five LNG vessels (nine from Sabine Pass, five from Corpus Christi, four each from Cameron and Freeport, two from Calcasieu Pass, and one from Cove Point) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 94 Bcf departed the United States between December 12 and December 18, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P. 
• LNG Terminals: Venture Global announced on December 14 that it had reached first LNG production at Plaquemines LNG in Port Sulphur, Louisiana, south of New Orleans. Plaquemines LNG is Venture Global’s second LNG export facility on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Natural gas deliveries to the Plaquemines LNG export terminal are rising gradually after receiving approvals from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to begin introducing hazardous liquids to Plaquemines Blocks 1, 2 and 3, or 6 liquefaction trains (two trains per block). Pipeline deliveries on the Gator Express Pipeline serving the terminal, which receives gas from the Tennessee Gas Pipeline, averaged 0.2 Bcf/d this week.

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Rig Count

• According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, December 10, the natural gas rig count increased by 1 rig from a week ago to 103 rigs. The Permian added one rig, and the Haynesville added two rigs; the Eagle Ford and Marcellus dropped one rig each. The number of oil-directed rigs was unchanged from a week ago at 482 rigs. The Granite Wash added one rig, and two rigs were added among unspecified producing regions. The Eagle Ford, Haynesville, and Permian dropped one rig each. The total rig count, which includes 4 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 589 rigs, 34 fewer rigs than last year at this time.

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Storage

• Net withdrawals from storage totaled 125 Bcf for the week ending December 13, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net withdrawals of 92 Bcf and last year's net withdrawals of 78 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,622 Bcf, which is 132 Bcf (4%) more than the five-year average and 20 Bcf (1%) more than last year at this time. 
• According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net withdrawals of 117 Bcf to 147 Bcf, with a median estimate of 130 Bcf.
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