Whether you like it or not The ICE industry is shrinking and the trend is going to continue faster and faster as time goes on.
VW just negotiated a deal with the union in which it will require laying off 35,000 workers and reducing auto production by 750,000 cars per year in Germany in exchange for keeping all 10 auto plants open in Germany.
Keeping auto plants open may sound like a decent compromise, but the auto plants are currently running at less than 60% capacity which is unsustainable. Reducing production will only mitigate the problem as all of the fixed costs such as the $200 BILLION debt doesn't go away. If the VW auto plants were not union shops, they would all close down.
Picking out a fact such as Tesla sales in November were down in Germany YoY (which is understandable if one does some digging rather than blurting out a headline) only accentuates the problem faced by the entire auto industry. That is my point.
Anyone that thinks the disaster that VW is mired in is just a German thing is sadly mistaken. The current malaise that has Japanese auto companies on the verge of merging as a last gasp attempt to survive will be next. How long will it be until the disease hits North America. Oh yea, it already has but the media refuses to report on it.
The media loves to focus on stupid stuff like Tesla recalling 700,000 cars. Tesla self-reported the problem and immediately fixed the issue with an overnight update sent out to the cars. If the media wasn't complet'ely spreading propoganda, perhaps they would report the fix as "another move from Tesla to keep their fleet updated to the newest and best version".
If any of the Big 3 has to do a 700,000 vehicle recall, customers have to book appointments with their garage and then spend time to get the fix repaired at a financial cost of hundreds of millions of dollars. Do you think a Big 3 company would self-report a small issue or would they do whatever they could to circumvent the problem by waiting until they can deal with a batch of issues when the problems become dangerous. GM had to pay $146 million in fines in July for not reporting an issue and that is just the tip of the iceburg.
While sales of EV's continue to increase around the world (pointing out a down month in one country in one month for one EV company is like picking a needle out of a haystack to promote an agenda), sales of ICE vehicles are crashing around the world. Sales of ICE in China (#1 in the world by a landslide) and Europe (#3 in the world) are collapsing.
Why is that?
1) The Big 3 have followed their auto brothers in Europe in slashing production of affordable cars. Why is that? Simple answer. They can't make money on them because of the high cost of labour and servicing hundreds of billions of dollars of debt. The Big 3 keeps pushing out ridiculously expensive trucks that are piling up on dealer lots. Try to find a decently priced Big 3 car that people can actually afford. How do you think that is going to end for the Big 3?
2) People want/need affordable transportation and EV's cost a fraction of what ICE vehicles cost to operate. EV's don't need brake jobs or oil changes and it costs about 1/8 of what it costs an ICE car for gas if you plug in at home.
3) Tesla and others are building out Super Charger stations at a rapid pace. There is already legislation in place in Ontario that new condo and appartment buildings require 25% of the parking space to have EV chargers. In the building I live in, the 25% are in place and a project is underway to allow every owner the opportunity to have an EV charger for about 1/3 of what the builder charged. Big box stores are already developing plans to allow customers to charge their EV's in their parking lots while they shop.
4) With Tesla making stunning gains in the efficacy of its FSD (Full Self Driving) capabilities, it is expected that parts of the US (Texas and California) are going to allow driverless cars in 2025. The data provided by the testing will prove to be unbeatable in terms of safety. People understand this.
5) Driverless cybercabs are going to be produced by the millions starting in 2026. It is expected that it will cost a person about $3 per hail a ride that will pick them up at their door in about 3 minutes and drop them off at the front door of their destination. Given that it costs close to $10,000 per year to operate a new model car in Canada each year (including depreciation, insurance, gas, maintenance, and repairs), that means you will be able to hail a cybercab about 3,000 times per year (8 times per day) for an equivalent amount of money. You will never have to look for or pay for parking. You will get into a car that is the perfect temperature. You will never have to take your car into the garage or call a tow truck. You will never have shovel a driveway if you have one.
EV's are coming whether you like it or not. There will always be diehard gearheads who will rightfully fight for their right to drive whatever they want, but most people will see the math and the decision to get migrate to EV's will be inevitable.