CIBC NotesEQUITY RESEARCH
December 22, 2024 Industry Update
Methanol Markets Benefiting From Iranian
Shutdowns
Fields & Yields
Iranian Gas Supply Challenges Tightening Methanol Markets: Iran
(normally 10% of global methanol output) has seen output dramatically
curtailed in recent weeks as energy shortages have crippled the country.
Over the weekend, the New York Times highlighted the energy crisis
gripping the country that has reportedly left Iran experiencing a natural gas
deficit of 350MM m3 a day as spiking residential demand in winter has
forced extreme rationing of gas (~70% of Iran's energy needs). The New
York Times estimates that 17 of Iran's power plants had been completely
taken offline as of Friday, with the remainder only partially operational. The
state power company, Tavanir, has reportedly warned industrial customers
to brace for widespread power outages that could span weeks. While Iran
has abundant energy reserves, sanctions, poor maintenance, corruption and
Israel's attacks on two gas pipelines back in February (which depleted
emergency reserves the country would normally lean on today) have
contributed to the current crisis.
Methanol Prices Firm In Asia On Constrained Supply: On Friday, MMSA
reported that Southeast Asia methanol spot prices rose 1.4% W/W to
$350/tonne (+5% Y/Y) driven by weak supply prospects, primarily due to gas
diversions in Iran (which supplies ~50% of China’s imports), and on
expectations of further monetary easing and fiscal spending in China.
Currently, MMSA believes that only one methanol plant is operating in Iran.
In the U.S., spot prices slightly declined (-1.2%) W/W to $409/tonne (+29%
Y/Y) due to restrained demand, while in Europe prices were largely stable
W/W at $456/tonne (+37% Y/Y) despite extended supply concerns.
Chinese Urea And DAP Exports Down In November: Earlier last week,
CRU reported that China exported only 1,000 tons of urea in November,
compared to ~515K tons in November 2023. This represents a 99% Y/Y
decline for the month, while on an 11-Mo YTD basis exports declined 93%
Y/Y. The decline is attributed to China maintaining its restrictions on
overseas shipments. Chinese DAP exports were also lower for the month of
November, declining 2.5% Y/Y, while YTD exports as of November were
down 6.8% Y/Y.
Potash Prices Mixed: On Thursday, CRU reported that U.S. Midwest
potash prices decreased 4.0% W/W to $298/ton (-27% Y/Y) due to sluggish
demand. In international markets, Argus reported that Brazil potash prices
were flat W/W at $305/tonne (-3% Y/Y) as activity slowed ahead of the
holiday season, while Southeast Asia prices rose 0.8% W/W to $308/tonne (-
5% Y/Y) on tight supply and healthy demand.
Urea Prices Supported By India Tender Confirmation: CRU reported that
U.S. NOLA urea prices rose 2.8% W/W to $332/ton (+11% Y/Y). Urea prices
are on firmer ground following India’s latest tender for 1.5MM tons, which
closed December 19. As of December 20, 21 offers totalling 2.6MM tons
were received.