RE:Countrygent ; If the FED continues to cut, it does support equity prices as yields become more attractive. But it has been a long run up generally, and one notable ... Berkshire Hathaway has been systematically lightening and building up cash, viz.:
As of November 2024, Berkshire Hathaway had over $325 billion in cash and equivalents, which is the largest cash position in more than 30 years. This is nearly double the amount of cash the company had at the end of 2022, and more than 400% higher than 10 years ago
A lot of ETG holders would probably accept some discount from their assessment of fair value of the company's OT assets in order to cash out.
But we are still trading far below what many would consider a fair net present value in light of upcoming cash flows from the JV at OT.
From a speculators point of view I think you need to have a model of copper and gold price outlook for the next 15 years.
On that score many in the mining business keep repeating that mine depletion, lower grades, slow and limited pipeline of new mines coming on line, versus population, green energy and clean air transitions, AI power demands, EV copper inputs, grid upgrades, continued urbanization and growth of middle class consumers in key mass populations in developing countries should put copper into a shortage/deficit position and prices must increase to reopen or initiate development of marginal deposits and justify capex for new supply.
In the meantime prices should be strong. Contrary view - global deep recession and deflationary forces overwhelm central banks and debt comes home to roost. Prediction: central banks and governments still have fiscal and monetary tools to manipulate markets and support target growth and minor inflation bias. Yes, a day of reckoning is coming but we just got a crony capitalist administration coming into the White House and nobody is pulling away the punchbowl any time soon? Debt defaults and bond market loss of liquidity are probably the canaries in the coal mine - I think it was Chrysler in the summer of 2008 that couldn't swing a junk bond issuance and we had Lehman Bros trigger financial disaster later that year when the whole sub-prime mess imploded. There is always a black swan swimming out there somewhere?
Be prudent!
cg