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Paramount Resources Ltd T.POU

Alternate Symbol(s):  PRMRF

Paramount Resources Ltd. is a Canada-based energy company. The Company explores and develops both conventional and unconventional petroleum and natural gas. It also pursues longer-term strategic exploration and pre-development plays and holds a portfolio of investments in other entities. Its principal properties are located in Alberta and British Columbia. The Company's operations are organized into three regions: the Grande Prairie Region, located in the Peace River Arch area of Alberta, which is focused on Montney developments at Karr and Wapiti; the Kaybob Region, located in west-central Alberta, which includes the Kaybob North Duvernay development, the Kaybob North Montney oil development and other shale gas and conventional natural gas producing properties, and the Central Alberta and Other Region, which includes the Willesden Green Duvernay development in central Alberta and shale gas producing properties in the Horn River Basin in northeast British Columbia.


TSX:POU - Post by User

Comment by black4444on Dec 24, 2024 4:13pm
54 Views
Post# 36376856

RE:RE:Curious for thoughts (except for Auburns)

RE:RE:Curious for thoughts (except for Auburns) Attempting to value POU today requires a bit of crystal ball gazing... 
 
Assuming deal close, dividend paid, energy prices are fixed for the next two years and POU's future capex, dividend and production numbers hold we can come to the following metrics for early 2027.
 
About $500m cash, $500m in investments and exit production of 60k boe/d split about 50/50 liquids/gas.
 
The opening cash of $3,325 less the $2,200 dividend gets drawn down by y/e 2026 as POU is over-spending cash flow from ops in 25/26. I'm using 2025 cash flow of $459m in 2025, $614m in 2026 and capex+div of $860 in both years. 
 
Attach a flowing per bbl price to the 60k boed, add the cash/investments to come up with your future valuation. 
 
I can get $15 to $27 per share ex dividend using $20k to $50k per flowing.
 
Other non monetary assets like Sinclair, Clearwater, Horn River/Liard and a shiny new gas plant at Alhambra for sure have value, but quantifying that is a guessing game. 
 
And of course the upside optionality of an entity with cash/borrowing capacity has value as opposed to many producers who have constrained capex profiles due to debt serving burdens.
 
Hopefully Santa's PM reads this and it helps get me on the Nice List!
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