RE:RE:Curious for thoughts (except for Auburns) Attempting to value POU today requires a bit of crystal ball gazing...
Assuming deal close, dividend paid, energy prices are fixed for the next two years and POU's future capex, dividend and production numbers hold we can come to the following metrics for early 2027.
About $500m cash, $500m in investments and exit production of 60k boe/d split about 50/50 liquids/gas.
The opening cash of $3,325 less the $2,200 dividend gets drawn down by y/e 2026 as POU is over-spending cash flow from ops in 25/26. I'm using 2025 cash flow of $459m in 2025, $614m in 2026 and capex+div of $860 in both years.
Attach a flowing per bbl price to the 60k boed, add the cash/investments to come up with your future valuation.
I can get $15 to $27 per share ex dividend using $20k to $50k per flowing.
Other non monetary assets like Sinclair, Clearwater, Horn River/Liard and a shiny new gas plant at Alhambra for sure have value, but quantifying that is a guessing game.
And of course the upside optionality of an entity with cash/borrowing capacity has value as opposed to many producers who have constrained capex profiles due to debt serving burdens.
Hopefully Santa's PM reads this and it helps get me on the Nice List!