The US economy, which accounts for over 55% of global diamond jewellery demand, is projected to slow in GDP growth in the coming year. Despite the deceleration, long-term correlations between economic productivity and diamond jewellery sales signal optimism for the market’s recovery.
Economic Outlook and Market Variables
Forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) suggest that U.S. GDP will grow by 2.2% in 2025. This marks a decline from the estimated 2.8% growth in 2024 and 2.9% in 2023. In October, the IMF attributed this slowdown to tighter fiscal policies and a cooling labour market. However, recent U.S. election outcomes could reshape macroeconomic variables.
In November, Republicans, led by Donald Trump, regained control of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives. Trump’s agenda includes protectionist policies such as stricter immigration enforcement and aggressive tariffs, which are expected to exert short-term inflationary pressures. Conversely, proposed measures like relaxed domestic energy policies and reductions in government spending may have deflationary effects.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has also adjusted its stance, cutting interest rates by 0.25% in November—the second consecutive cut following a series of aggressive hikes in 2022 and 2023 aimed at curbing post-pandemic inflation. Current projections suggest further rate cuts totaling 1% by the end of 20