Analyst action regarding IVN... Citi analyst Alexander Hacking sees Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.’s 2025 target of almost 600,000 tons from its Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as “achievable,” pointing to current mining and processing rates but noting it “requires higher grades into the Phase 3 concentrator, which did improve in October.”
“In 2026 and beyond, more than 600,000 tons per year copper is targeted with incremental mill throughput, improved recoveries from Project 95 (up 30,000 tons per year), and smelter ramp-up,” he added. “Debottlenecking efforts on Phase 3 are expected to help achieve 20-per-cent above combined nameplate mill throughput (14,2000 to 17,200 tons per year) – all initiatives are expected to be found in the 2025 IDP, including Phase 4 expansion. Dividends from Kamoa-Kakula are anticipated in 2025.”
Citing the firm’s lower copper price forecast, Mr. Hacking did cut his 2024 earnings per share projecting to 19 cents from 24 cents and his 2025 expectation to 45 cents from 58 cents.
However, he maintained his “buy” recommendation and $24 target for the Vancouver-based company’s shares. The average on the Street is $25.42.
“We remain at Buy/High Risk on IVN based on upside from Western Foreland,” he said. “Note: Valuation on current production is US$69,000/ton ($17-billion/ 600kt x 40 per cent), which is relatively high but WF offers a credible path to double attributable production, in our view.”
“Citi is long-term bullish copper, and we believe IVN offers investors the best growth profile in our global coverage.”