RE:RE:RE:Greager needs to GO. Get a Canadian CEOHeavyBanana wrote: JohnnyDoe: "Short of very high sustained wti prices I don't see bte getting up into the 8-9 dollar range and even if those wti prices happen, there's more opportunities elsewhere "
The shortly lived sharp rise to the 9 dollar level just prior to summer 2022 seems to be the benchmark that all disappointment in Baytex is based for many people who post on this thread and surely the same sentiment runs rampant in a broader Baytex investor basket of people who don't post on investor forums.
If you pull that spike out of the picture, it seems highly likely that Baytex reaches $6.50 once again and/or many times again within a range of fluctuation.
It's trading at $3.50 today. I would argue the opportunity is very compelling here and I can say that confidently while still agreeing with you that in hindsight, selling all during that spike to the $9.00 range in 2022 would have been better.
It's weird to me why the current opportunity here is so often poop'd on by those that benchmark the current price to a spike in mid 2022.
Lots of other opportunity out there for sure but Baytex provides a very compelling opportuntiy right here too,imo.
Its not just the spike to 9. Most here felt it was undervalued and we're looking at a path to the mid teens.
Right now, I see a very difficult path to 7 bucks, which essentially is a double. The sustaining capex is too high. Read 2025 budgets/forecasts from other cdn O&G companies. Bte's capex/fcf ratio or capex/production ratios are not comparatively good.
If wti languishes around 70-75, I don't see any opportunity with this stock. If it goes to 90+, which admittedly it might, then this stock will do very well.
I also think it needs a new CEO. Anyway you slice it, Eric screwed up the Ranger deal. The anticipated fcf is way way off. I don't think he'll get another chance at institutional investment.
Cheers