RE:RE:RE:RE:Lets all remember to not get too lost in the weeds.... Materials, great response and thank you for that.
Specifically, where you are coming from, your viewpoint and position, is an ideal example of how most retail investors are viewing tariffs; and unfortunately how most people are getting it wrong.
I agree with you re a blanket tariff number, a high blanket tariff number, will most likely not materialize for the reasons you present. For the most part, Trump, as you point out, has been using the threat of these tariffs in order to gain complaince with other countries...Canada, Mexico, EU, BRICS...etc...What needs to be empahsized and singled out, is China. Different rules of engagement for that beast...China is just different, and Trump will deal with them in a much harsher way than all his other children. It's a different game with China, differnt rules.
The important part of this puzzle is that Trump will not be coming out with one tariff number for all Chinese goods...that wouldn't make any sense, as you point out. Why? Because Trump cannot hurt the dollar store little guys of America...It would be political suicide to hammer your low to middle class peeps...you know, the ones that got you elected! I agree, won't happen. There will be a dollar store item tariff but it won't be massive...but it will come because Trump has stated numerous times, it's about making money off these tariffs...he thinks he can pay off the US debt with these tariffs, hah...I wish him all the best.
The second tariff number will be applied to anything and everything, strategic and/or China related. Chinese EV cars will be banned, you watch. For our purposes here on this bullboard, graphite will get a massive tariff imho. The market will be shocked by this number...to your comments, well how could that happen, wouldn't that be too detrimental? Who in the US knows anything about graphite? Most Americans think of 'pencils' and have no idea whatsoever what graphite is used for...if Trump imposed a 300% tariff on Chinese graphite, how would that effect the majority of his base, most Americans? It wouldn't, at all. Oh it would add to the cost of an EV? Who cares? Do you think Trump or his base would care in the least about the cost of an EV going up a few hundred dollars because of a tariff? Trump could put in place and 500% and still no one would care.
Well, wouldn't that hurt the US OEMS? Yes it would...they have had four years plus to establish local supply chains under Biden and avoid tariffs altogether. They did nothing in those years. They took free gov't money, closed their eyes to investing in local supply chains and believed their cheap Chinese gravy train of graphite would go on forever. No one feels sorry for the OEMs...they have been feeding at the buffet for too long playing both sides, North America and China, and now the gig is up. Zero sympathy...oh ya, the same OEM's that didn't support Trump in his election? haha...they are screwed.
Remember, Trump has said numerous times he does not hate EV's...he just wants them built in the US with US or ally sourced materials...unless he brings tariff pain to China and the OEM's, he will never change that manufacturing and sourcing behaviour ie bring all that home, US jobs, US manufacturing, US mining...US everything. He wants to get off China like yesterday, while at the same time making money off those tariffs....why? Because he can...he is negotiating from a position of strength, standing in front of the most powerful military and economy in the world.
Two tariffs...First Tariff will for all the dollar store peeps, small and digestible by the public...Trump told everyone during his election Chinese tariffs are coming and he got elected in a landslide. His base is fine with it.
Second Tariff will be large and painful, designed to inflict maximum damage to China, get the US off Chinese minerals, make money and change US OEM behaviour, a four for one...made in America baby!