RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Lets all remember to not get too lost in the weeds.... Materials,
Your comments speak right to my heart re China...your research is bang on. China has NOT slowed down its graphite 'overproduction' ...because THEY simply CANNOT take their foot off the pedal.
China is the only major country that has NOT recovered from COVID yet...their economy is in big trouble and on th ropes. Xi continues to lie about GDP growth etc...real-estate, China's number one source of historical wealth has been collapsing for a few years, with no answer in sight. What's more, and scarier for Xi than the economic numbers, is the recent and unprecedented social unrest that has been growing in China over the last couple years....young people are unemployed and angry...people have lost their life savings through the real-estate flop, and they're mad...so much so they are marching and protesting in major Chinese provinces...poor economics are one thing, but social unrest leading to potential uprisings, that's a completely different monster re Xi...China has the worst demographics in the world times a thousand...they do not have enough medium aged workers to do the jobs required to sustain a people, a country, life...many would argue that China's horrendously poor demographics are a driving force behind China's AI ambitions...technology makes us more efficient right? We can do more with less people...China's #1 problem...so makes sense to me that China, struggling with poor demographics, is all in re AI...simply for their survival as a country, economically speaking.
So, yes China continues to pump out graphite to feed their industries...I don't believe they can stop...what happens if they do? More people out of work...more people angry, more people marching in the streets? More hits to a struggling GDP? Less growth? With the US and Canada closing NA markets...China is moving like crazy finding new markets all over the world...they simply cannot stop manufacturing, it could be the final crack that breaks the dam. Remember China is building right now hundreds of nuclear reactors all across the country...those new tech reactors require a massive contingent of graphite to line insides of them re heat absorption...also, BYD is slowly taking over the world, other than the US and Canada...they are everywhere, and growing market penetration by the day...GM and others in China are dead...Telsa's days are numbered in China...BYD produces a beautiful car that has been reviewed highly by western standards...at prices no one other than BYD can compete with! My point, China needs its graphite...their demand is growing by the month on multiple fronts...EV's around the world, sales were up like 35% year to year...that's very nice growth.
"It looks to me as though there's a war in progress involving economic survival rather than military might."
Interesting insight on that...I guess it depends on your perspective re the source of a country's strength. I would say strong powerful countries have strong powerful economies....however; I would also say, show me a strong powerful country that does not have a strong powerful military.
I would suggest that without a strong powerful military (or ally), the strong powerful economy does not happen. If you can't protect your international shipping lanes with a powerful navy, trade would be near impossible...just for example.
"Right now, it seems the other side maintains the upper hand. Trump's going to have his hands full."
Interesting you would say that. Again, I think that comment represents a lot of mainstream thinking around China today. I think China is in its weakest position they have been in decades. Going back to COVID, the world found out the hard way what happens when you lack local supply chains, and have to rely on a country for life essentials, that is not your friend after all. It's not good...and it wasnt good, it was really bad...everywhere.
Manufacturing moved out of China post COVID in the masses...which has led to globalization 2.0....it's all about who your friends are...you are either with us, or you are with them. We are all going to work together over here in the WEST, share, build, produce, protect etc...while we also do our best to undermine your ability to do the same.
As previously mentioned above for all those reasons, China is really struggling right now in every measurable category...highlighting the social unrest as being the most dangerous and one that isnt reported on nearly enough...
I'm curious, in what way do you think "the other side maintains the upper hand?"
China has two aircraft carriers...one is a museum piece...the other has only been used for 'training' and has never seen combat. Compare that to the fleet of US carriers...WOW, David and Goliath...China's military weapons are basically Russian tech...ouch We have all seen how Russian tech has done in Ukraine...not confidence inspiring if you are Xi. China has had its strongest ally in Russia weakened immensely from the Ukraine war...that has been a massive blow...Russia's ineffective war machine has hurt the Chinese brand big time on a global scale (weakened BRICS) ...China can't even feed their people...their #1 import is food....their number one source of personal wealth is collapsing...their debt to GDP is way worse than the US, like 300% ish I believe...that's horrendous...ticking time bomb...Trump has declared war, 100% tariff any country doing business in non US dollars, BRICS currency etc...the population are marching and protesting in the streets...Xi is having to lie about GDP constantly just to keep the crack in the dike from exploding...demographics are an anchor around Xi's neck with nothing but AI to save them...the US is actively closing the door on China's ability to get into the AI race...so what aspect of China as a country gives them the upper hand in anything? Yes they still are a manufacturing power house...but that's changing and is no longer the big stick it used to be prior to COVID. They do proudce chips; however, they are the lower tech chips...like your toothbrush signing a tune etc...low level irrelevant stuff.
China is projecting strength right now, banning, and restricting key materials to the US, and threatening to restrict more...not because they want to, but because they have to. They are fighting for their survival as a country at their weakest point in decades...and that is precisely why Trump will bring the pain in a big way in two weeks. It's what you do when you're in a fight and your opponent is weak.
Just my thoughts on China, I could be wrong on everything!