RE:Maritime export facility capacity Let's see what Trump applies the tariffs towards.Trump would be wise to impose tariffs on goods originating from Ontario, Quebec, Maritimes, BC and Manitoba if trying to effect regime change in Ottawa.
There's no reason for AB/Smith to participate as all it will do is cede market share to other countries/suppliers.
If there are no tarrifs on AB then there's no business case for Alberta to disrupt the flow to the USA. Isn't this the game Trudeau and Ottawa like to play?
sebastian2 wrote: Just doing some quick match. Because of Trans Mountain pipeline there is some extra export capacity at the marine loading facilities that would probably be taken up by canadian producers because of US tariffs. This would probably diver enough heavy crude away from US market to cause a 200K maybe 300K shortfall. It may net seem like much but that will cause problems for US refiners at least over the next few months. Even if we need to keep selling that 3.5Mb/day at bigger discount due to the tariffs the shortfall will be another issue for US refineries to deal with. Also if the crude is just trasported and sold to be loaded on foreigh tankers in Galveston for example no duty would apply and transit fees would only be subject to current pricing as per existing contracts so there is some room to diversify even through US terminals if needed.