My Humble Opinion
The Autumn CONDITIONS:
1. 5 Trillion loss of wealth.
2. Unprescedented per capita debt.
3. Increasing Unemployment.
4. Inflation in real estate dramatic, blindsiding Greenspan who measures NO inflation with other criteria.
5. Extremely poor technicals in ALL indexes: S&P to be cut 60%, NAZ to hit 800, DOW to get slaughtered SEPT, OCT to December.
6. High fear factor in Public with high PE ratios unprescedented.
7. Denial of existing conditions by average mom and pop, clinging on to house value escalation in past 3 years.
Sequence:
1. Significant slices of all indexes with few more bad earnings reports. May get snapback to bull temporarily. 15 Billion cashed out from mutual funds, more to come to sell into Bull.
2. Down kill collapse of all tech and value stock Oct with further tax loss selling and banks selling traditionally this month. Rush to the exit.
3. Run to real estate as haven. Real Estate stiffens up, then, SUDDENLY crash in similar scenario as 1989-90. Disenchantment with Greenspan, nursing wounds, anemic throughout all off 2002.
4. Cash is King: The wealthy who control the markets take homes, stocks from the empoverished.
A Repeat of History. Greenspan to be written as misleading to common Joe, but a legend in his own time.