RE: Interesting TimesThe Hathaway interview to which you linked me, Russ, actually kind of confirms my opinion: in a public interview, he says:
https://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/902
It wouldn't be surprising if the government were doing something, because they intervene in currency markets. Gold is really a form of a currency, so I don't think we should be surprised if they were doing some things, though there's really no hard proof. I'd say here's a fair amount of smoke. But again, I would give you the same answer that I gave on the central banks, and that is if money wants to flow in to this sector, there's really nothing that the government can do about it. The financial flows are just too powerful. However, he later comments that he didn't respond as he would have wished, though he doesn't actually say what he is he wished he would have said.
I've done my best with all the articles you mentioned, Hathaway's series of articles and Puplava (well written) and I don't feel like I completely understand what you and metaldog and all these guys are driving at. There seem to be two issues: manipulation and the problematic proliferation of derivatives and certificates which aren't backed by physical gold. The derivative issue I can understand and it does, funnily enough, sound like that 'house of paper' I scoffed at earlier. In the absence of a gold standard, though, that isn't as big a problem as it could be. Is the point then that mining companies won't be able to deliver the gold as they've hedged themselves and high-grade mined themselves into unprofitability?
The manipulation, then, is again a derivative-based move by government? central banks? to suppress the price of gold, is that right? The well-timed selling of 100 contracts before a Fed interest rate announcement, etc. As Hathaway himself says in the bit I quoted above, if money wants to flow in to this sector, there's really nothing that the government can do about it. Maybe there's some manipulation, but how does it matter when gold no longer backs the currency?
Obviously, I'm no economist, as I said. I'm sure you can set me straight on these issues. One last question: what, in your opinion, is the event or series of events which triggers the collapse of the derivative house of paper? Is it simply declining production over the next ten years as a result of exploration funding disappearing and mine lives coming due? Or are you waiting for the currency to collapse to cause a run on gold, short squeeze, every trader in derivatives from mining companies to bullion banks gets crushed in the manner of LTCM and Metallgesellschaft?