DOW 1930 - Nasdaq today-a fond rememberance
If one alignes the peak of the Nasdaq with the 29 peak of the DOW...and applies the ratio of Nas Peak/Dow peak throughout one can potentially see where we are.
Basically we are at mid march 1932 with an equivalent close 90.3.
If the Nas continues to follow the same chart pattern as the DOW it will continue to crater right up to end of the year (sorry no X-mas cheer) and bottom at 553. Jan-Feb would be the Mother of all short-covering rallies. It will wither away for the rest of the year until Sept when finally it will have successfully completed a bottom test and then start to rally.
If gold follows the same pattern as silver did during the depression , it will start to plunge with rest of the markets (in a fashion similar to July of this year) and continue downwards until July 1 2003 (After a mid-depression rally, whose peak corrsponds perfectly with the June peak in gold) silver made it's low on Jan 1933)
I realize for some of the gold longs this seems impossible...but is it? one there was July of this last year where gold went down in line with the rest of the markets....in a REAL panic everyone goes for cash
As well if you have read any of lenard Kaplan's commentaries you will realize by now that demand for gold is down by double digits...I also know that applies to gold coins ( traditionally a guage of investment demand)...this rally of "real money" is based on speculation of paper futures and spec money is "hot" and can flow both ways.
And personally until there is actually DEMAND for physical gold JPM gold derivatives are safe as a bug in a rug as long as they have thier printing press running.
by the time gold bottoms...at that time the PTB will be so desparate to signal liquity into the system they will buy gold to crank up the price, and like all things they will over do it.
so there you go...not scientific...but still...within the realm of the possible
Note: I assume the DOW will trade in sympathy to the Nas but I doubt if it will lose 90% off it's peak