GREY:NUSMF - Post by User
Comment by
redfoxon Dec 27, 2002 9:15am
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Post# 5710606
RE: cash flow
RE: cash flowB3K48P
my calcs show that the cfps of about 57.8 cents.
I get that from 25 mmcfpd @ $6 per mcf * 365 days *.3 which should give about $45K per day or $16.4 million per year. On an outstanding float of about 28 million shares would yield a cash flow of about $0.5783
Big assumptions:
price remains at $6 /mcf
pressures remain high enough to pump 25 mmcf/d throughout entire year
no maintenance or shut down of pipeline / equipment
what would make sense, from a risk perspective, is to assume that this optimistic scenario will not take place and discount everything by say 20%. That would still yield a cash flow in the $0.43 cent range. Stock is trading in the $1.15 range would then imply a ratio of 2.63. This calculation is obviously only looking at the latest well and does not take into account any of the existing production, nor does it make any allowance for future finds / drop off of pressures / production on existing or future wells, etc., etc.
Hope this helps.