RE: The 5 Keys to a Long Term Bull Market in Gold1. Foreign inflows remain intact...the entire bull market of the 90's was built on a growing current account deficit. when that deficit starts shrinking then they are in big trouble
2. You see what you want to see. The USD is NOWHERE near historic highs. Indeed it has yet to do a 50% retrace from its rally starting in 95-96. 50% retrace is reached at 100.6...by the time it gets there it will show oversold on every technical indicator in the known universe...sentiment of USD is extremely low exemplified by the fact that smal specs have only a 9% bullish rating...i.e. they are massively short
2a. On the flip side a long term chart of the euro shows that this recent 6 month rally is the multi-year equivalent of a dead cat bounce. Given that the economic growth figures make the US look like a runaway train, the descrepancy between interest rates should start to narrow. the euro is alos benificiary of a war premium, which are always transitory
3. The CRB shows overbought on the daily, weekly AND monthly charts. Despite this, on a long term chart the CRB is just at the top of a long-term regression channel..does one think that a boost in manufacturing demand is going to lift things higher? Copper and steel are already rolling over
4. Despite Enron, Worldcom etc there has been no to little increase in investment demand for physical bullion
5 "momentum in the appreciation of the bond market must be decelarating".....puullllleeeeze.....bonds must be sinking...not
"decelerating"