RE: Some Simple Math......Well, it's not the fact of what can be pulled out of the ground in 150 years, the question how quickly can we sell this volume because if we can't sell it, it should will remain where it is. It's one thing to have the goods, but the valuation will be based on the expectation of "future incomes". Future meaning how many years this deposit will supply product demands. Until we get an idea for real demand, it theoricially could take 65 years to sell it all. (Although I think we all agree it won't take nearly that long) What we really care about at this point is how much market share can we get.
If we are counting on a five year supply for a minimum reserve of 16.3 million tonnes, then we will have to be selling on average 3.26 million tonnes a year. I would love to see 16.3 million tonnes sold in 5 years. That is major cashflow, but based on the "reported" numbers that doesn't seem to add up. The marketing report(although a conservative estimate) doesn't support a 5 year supply because it doesn't give the required amount of market share to sell this much product.
TOB