RE: Equity Positionbjork
30% royalties are a fantasy...
the mystery isn't really that difficult to figure out, but let me try to help you and make it really simple for you to understand -
10% of potentially billions in annual revenues will make you well-off as will 25% of the same amount. apparently you prefer to increase the risk of failure, perhaps significantly, to have a chance at being filthy rich.
the only thing onc should be worrying about now is that which will determine if they can attract a reputable partner. that means ensuring they have adequate resources to complete their ph II trials in a timely manner and ensuring that those trial results are sufficiently large that they are statistically valid and reliable to withstand the scrutiny of a potential partner.
if you had read my post in context, you may have figured out (assuming you are capable) that if they screw up with the trials eg. insufficient enrollees or trial size, design protocols that have inadequate measures of safety & efficacy, one vs. multiple injections, etc., the resulting delays and/or insufficient results will add to the need for additional ph III testing which will cost them time, money and optimal partnership terms.
per the kudlow interview with the new FDA chairman, new drug development costs to the end of ph III typically amount to approx $900M US - for a partner to spend that kind of money on reolysin and essentially still assume all the risks (which will still be significant in ph III - see erbitux) for 50-70% of the potential sales, is dreaming, imo.
then again, even a 10% royalty may be a fantasy.
thats all the fun and games for tonite. you can now return to LA-LA land.
