Bachus Passes on Third Try CRYPTOLOGIC
CRYP–NASDAQ : US$7.83; CRY-TSX : C$10.58 — SPECULATIVE BUY
12 JUNE, 2003
Scott Preston 415.401.0301
Scott.preston@researchcapital.com
Jonathan Wiesblatt, Associate 416.860.7779
U.S. Anti-Online Gaming Bill (Bachus) Passes on Third Try
Price: $7.83 Basic Sh. O/S (mm): 12.2
Target Price (1 yr.): $10.00 FD Shares (mm): 12.2
Projected Return: 28% Float (Shares mm): 11.9
52 W k. High: $14.90 Market Cap (mm): $95.5
52 W k. Low: $3.12
FY Dec. 31 2001A 2002A 2003E 2004E
EPS $1.22 ($0.15) $0.61 $0.76
P/E 6.4x n/a 12.8x 10.3x
Rev $43.60 $34.40 $35.7 $39.2
P/Rev 2.2x 2.8x 2.7x 2.4x
Per Share Data
EVENT
U.S. Anti-Online Gaming bill passes after third try and lengthy debate.
HIGHLIGHTS
The Bachus Anti-Online Gaming bill was voted through by the House of
Representatives on Tuesday night in a narrow win that required an extra
session in which several Republicans changed their votes in order to pass the
bill. After the bill was pulled twice due to limited support last week, we were
surprised to see it get through the House, especially without the
Sensenbrenner amendment that allowed no carve outs and basically killed the
Leach bill.
The Bachus bill at this point contains no civil or criminal enforcement
provisions. So, although it deems online gambling illegal, no penalties could
be levied against parties that conduct such activities.
The next step will occur in the U.S. Senate, where Senator Kyl will try to push
through his anti-online gaming bill. This bill will likely first go to the banking
committee. If Kyl’s bill happens to make it through committee and the Senate,
the two bills must be reconciled and then passed by the two Houses before
making it to the White House for final passage into law.
INVESTMENT CONCLUSION
Despite this slightly negative legislative development, the
regulation/prohibition fight is long from over, and we expect many more
negative headline events to create some overhang until the regulatory
situation in the U.S. is fully resolved. Until the U.S. regulation/prohibition fight
is settled, investors should continue to focus on the growth of CRYP’s
European business (now 50% of revenue) and traction with its new games
(poker, bingo). Stock remains a SPECULATIVE BUY.
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Profile
CryptoLogic (www.cryptologic.com) is the leading software
development company serving the Internet gaming market. The
company's proprietary technologies enable secure, high-speed
financial transactions over the Internet.
Upcoming Events
Q2/03: Expecting revenue of US$8.9 mm and EPS of US$0.15.
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toothless
Good luck to all