Revenue Projections
As a long-standing investor in MOA I welcome the unexpected opportunity to acquire stock from others who have either lost their nerve or did not understand the rationale for investing in MOA. I'll confine my comments re this outstanding investment opportunity to Tirisano.
1.Tirisano produced approx. 9000 carats under adverse circumstances in it's start-up year, achieving $389US per carat at 1.5 carats per 100 tons equalling $5.84US per ton.
2.The anticipated operating costs were $2.74US per ton; the depreciation of the US dollar to the rand has increased this cost to $4.20US per ton.
3.I understand that the Sortex method has not been fool-proof and that the retained concentrate may be re-processed using a more traditional diamond capture process, even a small improvement of the grade should result in $2US free cash flow per ton.
4. The new Bateman plant which is now operational should be processing 5000 tons per day, the original plant producing 2000tons per day. The second Bateman plant should be operating by July. Therefore this year alone should process 2.5 million tons. However, it is rumoured that the new on-site management will be pushing for a 10,000 ton per day plant instead of the initially proposed 5000 tpd plant.
5.15000 tpd for 300 days is 4.5million tons per year. If the US$ regains 50% of it's loss against the rand, operating costs would decrease producing free cash flow of $2.75 per ton.
6. 4,500,000 tons x $2.75 x 25%(moa's share) = $3,093,750
7. A pe of 12 and approx. 18,000,000 share float would give medium term value of $2US for MOA.
8. The above does not take into account greater operational efficiency with larger plants.
9. An additional 10,000 tpd plant per year would provide an additional $1.30US per share.
Tirisano is a proven and producing resource; MOA has also the lure of an exploration play with a potentional billion ton resource, I expect the whole deal will be taken over (not by EET which is too small)by a major SA miner, continuing weakness in the stock by indiscriminate sellers will reduce the overall value of any takeover offer. A year wait is nothing for a potential 4 or 5 bagger which is possible for new investors in MOA.