ChinaCurrently, 19 of the 31 Chinese provinces are experiencing rolling blackouts. There are power shortages
in 16 of those provinces.
The problem began in 1996 and 1997. At this time there was actually an excess of supply in power. This
lead to the scrapping of plans to construct new plants. Since 1998 the construction in new plants has
lagged both economic growth and power consumption. Since 1998 construction has increased 4 percent a
year whereas power consumption has increased at a rate of 10-15 percent (depending on who you talk to),
and economic growth has increased at a rate of 7 percent. (*source of these stats are in the Taipei times
July 7th, 2003 article: “China’s blackouts continue”).
Power consumption is estimated to be 2.09 trillion kilowatts by the end of 2005. Power generation for 2002
was 1.63 trillion kilowatts.
Currently, it is estimated that up to 80% of China’s energy is produced via coal. China recently closed
down a lot of small coal plants and plans to close more. The plan is to replace these plants with larger, more
efficient natural gas, oil and nuclear plants. It is estimated that at the current moment hydro and nuclear
power account for only 10% of China’s energy needs?
The smell of privatization is in the air. After all, why would the government begin shutting down unprofitable
plants if not to make the energy industry more attractive to private foreign investors.
Zhu Yuezhong, deputy director of the Beijing Energy Efficiency Center, was interviewed in the Business
Report published in December of last year. Zhu estimated that China would increase nuclear power, in
order to supply 19 times more energy in 2020 than it does today in China; he also estimated that wind
power would supply 125 more times than it does today. However, Zhu also stated that coal would still supply
58% of China’s energy production.
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