Regional Jets Get BiggerEmbraer's forecast says airline 'rightsizing' will drive fleets. According to a recent article in Aviation Week (May 10, 2004):
Regional carrier operations will play a bigger role in the growth of the world airline market, predicts Embraer in a 20-year forecast for the 30-120-seat commercial jet aircraft segment.
The Brazilian aircraft manufacaturer issued the 2004-23 forecast last month at the Regional Aircraft Association's 2004 convention in St Louis, the theme of which was growth and myriad challenges. Embraer looked at 30-120-seaters because the segment is "underrepresented" and becoming increasingly important to industry.
Air travel in the segment is expected to outpace world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by nearly two to one in the forecast period, according to Embraer. Anticipated growth could increase an average of 6.1% yearly, compared with a predicted GDP average growth rate of 3.3% through the period.
In the next few years, the increased availability of 70-110-seat aircraft is to change the way airlines deploy larger aircraft, according to Embraer. While this development is just emerging, the Embraer forecast says it will "significantly impact" estimates for the number of aircraft required to meet travel demand.
As airlines recover from the industry crisis, they are evaluating ways to adapt to volatile air travel demands with the current aircraft in their fleets, according to the forecast. And so it becomes increasingly important to accurately match aircaft capacity to market demand, says the forecast. As many carriers "rightsize" fleets, that is, decrease use of larger jets where demand is lower, the distribution of aircraft will change.
Each seat segment could fill a varity of roles, for example"
*30-60-seat jet - to expand hub catchment areas or increase freqencies.
*61-90-seat aircraft - to add capacity in markets where expanding regional jet routes require larger jet aircraft or to "rightsize" mainline fleets by reducing the need for larger jets to operate in excess of passenger demand.
The most significant redistribution will occur in this segment, said Embraer, and by 2023 will account for more than 25% of the total number of aircraft compared with the current 15%.
*90-120-seat aircraft - to replace old, oversized or inefficient jet fleets.
By 2023, growth/replacement aircraft are expected to drive the global fleet of 30-120-seat aircraft to 10,100 units from the current 4,000 level. About 8,450 new aircraft will be required to meet capacity and renewal demand, according to Embraer. The North American region, expected to receive 56% of deliveries, is the biggest market, followed by Europe/Africa/Middle East with 23% of deliveries (Asia 6%).
Another factor in fleet composition is aircraft retirement. According to Embraer, about 2,000 aircraft in the 30-120-seat category are scheduled to be retired in the forecast period. Sixty-three percent of the aircraft in the 61-90-seat category are expected to be out of service by the end of the forecast period, and in the 91-120-seat market, 85% of aircraft are expected to be retired.