New Lead TargetLooks to me like we have a strong rally in lead price coming now.
The chart reads this pattern to achieve about $1,120.00 US per ton,56 cents/US/ton on the current move, triggered by the past few days break out and confirmation.
So, what does the board see for the value of IVW's current reserves, assuming this price. Please excuse if I input incorrect assumptions, and FWIW, IMHO, BWDIK, etc., but here goes:
Say average of 75,000 tons(using 2000 pounds/ton) in first full year of production(conservative?). Price of lead at $1,100./US$ton; gross sales, assuming same price for equivalent sale of concentrate/pure would be
$82,500,000.
Cost of production estimate was $.18 per pound/$360.00 per ton. Did I read this estimate was in Cdn or USdollars?(Aussie?)
Assuming production per pound estimate was in Canadian currency, then cost of production in US$ is $.145/pound or $288.00/US$ per ton.
Apples to apples: Sales price of $1,120./ton in US$ v. cost/production of $288./ton (in US$)equals net/pretax profit of $832./ton/US$ x 75,000 tons in first full year of production, or $62,400,000. US$
Split by two with Sentient roughly 50% share: $31,200,000. to IVW shareholders.
Divide by 60 million IVW shares comes to 52 Cents/US per share.
Multiple for industry, maybe low of 7x = $3.64/sh, US$ or $4.55/sh CDN. Higher multiples may apply, please advise.
The price target of CDN $4.50 is very close to the the chart target now, at $4.25 CDN. Be nice to see a print of 1.75 first, then off to races to the lead chart related price target.
Disclaimer: not a miner, first attempt at valuation of this entity, welcome to constructive criticism, etc.
I like the $4.25 number a lot, LOL.
vocex1