RE: working the numbersI disagree Poundmaker... The market is fundamentally a mechanism that pays for expected revenue ( or earnings ) whether BioTech is in favour or not. The "discount rate" that's applied to earnings in valuation models depends on a number of factors... including risk/reward, stability and potential growth.
I too have been a shareholder for a number of years. I too have been frustrated by the delays in finalizing deals. There's no question that the market has penalized Prometic's valuation because it lost visibility over the last year and a half as the timelines of the key value drivers were all pushed out.
I think where you and I fundamentally disagree is where we are now. You say " PLI will be bankrupt in a year or two based on what is currently contracted " I just dont see that being the case. I contend that all of the promise of two years ago is still in tact....In fact, I think the situation has improved considerably in terms of the degree of the various opportunities. Most importantly, the company has made it abundantly clear that a number of these catalysts are coming together in very short order. All of these catalysts, in addition to the growing revenue streams include considerable cash.
I certainly understand why you (and some others) feel the way you do. Its been a frustrating ride over the last two years. I do however honestly believe that the smart money is accumulating based on the information in the market. Its abundantly clear that these things are REAL and they are coming together.
Its certainly not a bad play to sit and wait til one or more of these shoes drop... BUT... you certainly wont be buying the stock at $1.15
I think that the company has given the market enough assurance and information to make a reasonably safe bet.