Trouble Spots for 2005Control Risks Group Publishes RiskMap to Forecast Opportunities and Trouble Spots for 2005
LONDON, Nov. 18, 2004 (PRIMEZONE) -- Control Risks Group, the international business risk consultancy, today launches RiskMap 2005, its annual study and forecast of political and security risks across the globe. Although the headlines in 2005 will continue
to be dominated by the ongoing war on terror, the report argues that this may only serve to distract business from the more direct and critical challenges it will face around the world. While acknowledging the global security consequences of events in the Middle East, RiskMap 2005 contends that the greatest threat to corporate success in key investment destinations such as Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela and Indonesia will be longstanding and local risks.
Risks to business in key countries are detailed below.
About Control Risks Group
Control Risks Group is an international business risk consultancy. Since its foundation in 1975, Control Risks has worked in more than 130 countries for more than 5,300 clients -- including 86 of the US Fortune 100 companies. Control Risks' mission is to enable its clients to succeed in complex or hostile environments. RiskMap 2005 is based on extensive analysis of 195 countries.
RiskMap is available to purchase at a price of 150.00 Pounds.
Data Sample
RiskMap 2005 includes Control Risks' security risk ratings forecasts, which identify the projected level of business risk in various countries around the globe. Areas listed below have been classified as EXTREME or HIGH risk. The forecasts are followed by an explanation of the security risk levels identified.
Ratings categories and countries/regions
EXTREME POLITICAL RISK
Russia (Chechnya region), Somalia.
EXTREME SECURITY RISK
Iraq, Somalia, Tajikistan (Afghan border area, Garm, Tavildera regions).
HIGH POLITICAL RISK
Afghanistan, Belarus, Bolivia, Burundi, Cote d'Ivoire, Georgia, Guinea (Conakry), Haiti, Iraq, Israel (Palestinian Authority (PA) areas), Liberia, North Korea, Philippines, Serbia and Montenegro (Kosovo region), Somalia (Somaliland), Tajikistan, Togo, Turkmenistan, Venezuela, Zimbabwe.
HIGH SECURITY RISK
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia (Azerbaijani border areas), Azerbaijan (Armenian border areas, Nagorno-Karabakh), Bangladesh, Burundi, Cameroon (major cities), Central African Republic (north, north-western regions), Colombia, Congo DRC, Cote d'Ivoire, Eritrea (Ethiopian, Sudanese borders), Ethiopia (eastern areas towards Somalia, towards Kenyan border, along Eritrean border), Georgia, Guatemala (Guatemala City), Haiti, Jamaica (Kingston and Spanish Town), India (Kashmir, Assam, Manipur, Tripura and Nagaland), Indonesia (Aceh, Papua, Central Sulawesi and Maluku), Israel (PA areas), Kenya (northern areas towards Somalia and along Ethiopian borders), Kyrgyzstan (Tajik and Uzbek border areas), Laos (Xaysomboune Special Zone and Xieng Khouang Province), Liberia (border with Cote d'Ivoire), Macedonia (northwest region), Moldova (Transdniestr), Nepal, Nigeria (Niger delta), Pakistan, Panama (Darien Province on Colombian border), Papua New Guinea (Port Moresby, Lae and Mount Hagen), Peru (Upper Huallaga, Apurimac, Ene and Perene valleys), Philippines (south-central, west Mindanao), Rwanda (border with Burundi), Russia (Dagestan, Ingushetia and North Ossetia), Saudi Arabia, Serbia and Montenegro (Kosovo, southern Serbia), Somalia (Somaliland), Tajikistan, Uzbekistan (Tajik border areas, Fergana valley), Venezuela (Colombian borders), Yemen, Zimbabwe.
MEDIUM POLITICAL RISK
Albania, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Benin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burkina Faso, Burma, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, China, Comoros, Congo, Congo DRC, Croatia, Cyprus (TRNC), Djibouti, East Timor, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Fiji, Gabon, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Lebanon, Lesotho, Libya, Macedonia, Madagascar, Malawi, Maldives, Mauritania, Moldova, Mongolia, Morocco (Western Sahara region), Mozambique, Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Russia, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Saudi Arabia, Serbia and Montenegro, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Swaziland, Syria, Tanzania (Zanzibar archipelago), Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Yemen, Zambia.
MEDIUM SECURITY RISK
Albania (north-east regions), Algeria (Sahara region), Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Benin (Nigerian border), Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, East Timor, Ethiopia, Fiji, France (Corsica, Les Landes, Alpes Maritimes region), Greece (Athens, Thessaloniki), Guinea (Conakry), Guinea-Bissau, Indonesia, Israel, Italy (Calabria, Sicily, Milan, Rome), Jordan, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Laos, Lesotho, Liberia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritania, Moldova, Mongolia, Mozambique, Niger (borders with Algeria, Libya), Nigeria, Oman, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Qatar, Russia, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka (north, north-eastern regions), Swaziland, Tanzania (Zanzibar archipelago, Rwanda border areas), Thailand, Togo, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda (northern areas affected by LRA insurgency), Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom (Northern Ireland and London), Uzbekistan, Zimbabwe (central urban areas).
Definition of Security Risk Levels
EXTREME
The severity of security risks to assets or personnel is likely to make business operations untenable. There is no law and order; conditions may verge on war or civil war. Companies must strongly consider withdrawal.
HIGH
There is a probability that foreign companies will face security problems; special measures are required. Assets and personnel are at constant risk from violence or theft by state or non-state actors OR there is a high risk of collateral damage from terrorism or other violence. State protection is very limited.
MEDIUM
There is a reasonable possibility of security problems affecting companies, but there is no sustained threat directed specifically against foreign companies. Targeted crime or violence poses some risk to foreign assets and personnel OR they are at risk from violence by terrorists or unrest.
LOW
Assets are generally secure and the authorities provide adequate security. Companies and personnel face only infrequent exposure to violence from terrorists or criminals; companies are unlikely to be systematically targeted for asset theft.
INSIGNIFICANT
Assets and personnel are not at risk except from isolated incidents or petty crime. Levels of violent crime are low, the authorities provide effective security and there is virtually no political violence.
Definition of Political Risk Levels
EXTREME
Conditions are hostile to/untenable for business. There is no investment security. The following conditions may apply: the economy has collapsed; law and order has broken down and state bodies ceased to function; there is a state of war or civil war; non-state actors cause suspension of operations; or the state is actively hostile to foreign business and expropriation of assets is likely.
HIGH
Business is possible but conditions are difficult or likely to become so in the near future. Political institutions effectively do not function, the regulatory framework is poor and judicial decisions are arbitrary. There is little security for investments. Business may be exposed to the following risks: economic and political conditions may become rapidly unstable; international sanctions are possible; non-state actors actively target business; or there is a risk of contract repudiation or re-negotiation by state actors.
MEDIUM
Foreign business is likely to face some disruption from state or non-state actors OR long-term investment security cannot be guaranteed. There is a risk for business of exposure to some or all of the following: corruption; strong and hostile lobby groups; absence of adequate legal guarantees; restrictions on imports or exports; weak political institutions; and capricious policy-making. In some Medium risk countries there is a latent threat of military or other illegal intervention.
LOW
Business can operate with few problems. Political institutions are stable but there is some possibility of negative policy change. Legal guarantees are strong but business may face some regulatory or judicial insecurity. Non-state actors may occasionally hamper operations.
INSIGNIFICANT
The environment for business is favorable and likely to remain so. Government policy is stable and the economy is secure. Business faces no legal or regulatory disadvantages. There are no significant non-state threats to operations.