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nagyonokos4on Feb 18, 2005 2:49pm
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Post# 8617881
Better Watch Iran
Better Watch Iran@AUSTRALASIAN INVESTMENT REVIEW
by: zeno_451 (M/pnw) 02/18/05 02:11 pm
Msg: 508231 of 508237
Investors Better Watch Iran
February 18 2005 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)
Are investors underestimating the chances for renewed geopolitical turmoil?
ANZ’s currencies and commodities strategist Craig Ferguson certainly thinks so. In Ferguson’s view, the geopolitical card is "the one fly in the ointment" that could derail the Fed's steady path towards higher rates throughout the year, as well as the USD's rally, and the odds of escalation are currently higher than markets are pricing in.
In reference to confirmed explosions inside Iran (though we don’t really know what has happened as yet), Ferguson points out that a few weeks ago, investigative journalist Seymour Hersch revealed that US troops were already involved in covert intelligence operations inside Iran, with the aim of reconnoitering key military and nuclear facilities.
There is no denying the Bush administration’s determination to continue to focus on countries it believes are a source of global insecurity, Ferguson notes. He believes that any escalation of the conflict with Iran would have simple implications; consumer confidence in the US would be dented and the recent economic slowdown likely deepened, with negative implications for the USD and US stocks.