RE: Worlds thirst For OIL likemoolaIt's nice to see reasoned arguments. And it is very possable $35 could happen. For now. Your right in saying we are not running out in the forseeable future. Problem is:
1. No one has found any cheap to get out oil in decades
2. The rest of the world wants your lifestyle which will never happen
at present because if 25% of the world consumed the resources we do here in NA there is not enough to go around
3. Energy is not something you can do without
4. Oil sands. Your correct here. Since the US consumes 24 mil barrels
a day the production coming out is small but growing and the potential reserves are huge.....
5. OPEC greed? Not really. In the first place adjusted for inflation
oil should be $80. I'm not suggesting it will go there. At $40 everyone seems to be humming along and they tell me despite this inflation is not a problem....given the US buck in this mess why would OPEC accept less than $40 for their oil? Ah catch 22. IMO the US buck has no where but to sink for now and as we know all commodities are priced in US dollars. So the Saudi's for example have
just taken a 20% trimming in value due to US buck. While at the same time seen their population doubled in a relatively short time.
6. Your saying $35 is likely due to inventories. And all due respect
you may well be right. For now. My gut feeling is $40 maybe $60 in the short run. As I said before if the world hits a recession, as you
rightly pointed out, all bets are off......but in the long run energy is for now IMO a no brainer. The US is about to lose it's dominence in the world economically to Asia....in your lifetime...
and your kids lifetime. Why do you suppose China ia sucking up to Iran? To secure supply in the future. On top of all this there is a very good chance some nutbar will take out major installation in say the middle east. If that happens $60 is going to look cheap.
7. At $35 CNQ will still make piles of mooney. It's interesting you chose that number. Wall St. is just coming around. And at this point we have not even delt with NG. On balance I think the odds are oil above $40 for now at least. All energy sources take years to bring on line. Dismissing energy use in china/india is to me a very dangerous position. Guess we wait and see.
Cheers
cv