OTCPK:IVWFF - Post by User
Post by
99921on Apr 04, 2005 12:57pm
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Post# 8856977
Future
FutureGM - Your question about the accuracy of my five year forecasts raises a good point about
the purpose and usefulness of the whole exercise. The simple answer is that I have no
idea how accurate the forecasts were because no one ever went back to refer to them
anyway. The present case is a good example. Creating a number that we think will be the
IVW share price in 2010 might create the feeling that we “have a handle on the future” as
the corporate people like to say but, in fact, creating the numbers is only a psychological
exercise and, once the numbers are created, they lose their utility because they are going
to be “updated” with new guesses in the future. When I hear or read about an expert
predicting a future value of anything my first question is “how long has he/she been doing
this?” If that leads to numbers created in the past you can get a good idea of how
competent they are to create them today. For instance, if an expert tells us what the oil
price will be one year from now let’s look back and see what their forecast was in April/04
and compare that with today’s reality. An interesting approach....