Ethiopia poised for poll backlashEthiopia poised for poll backlash
JOHN DONNELLY
IN ADDIS ABABA
IN THIS high-altitude capital, smells of the city linger, especially the rich aromas that pour out of coffee houses, arousing the senses of passers-by.
Inside Tomoca's Coffee House, off Churchill Road, men nurse the brew in their small mugs, talking quietly of the leading topic of conversation in Addis: the elections, which were held on May 15. The National Elections Board will not officially announce the winners until later this week.
"There won't be any war from this election," said Ahmed Nuru, 45, who trades in jewels. "It will be peaceful. The counting takes time. We are a backward country. The ballots are transported in some places by donkey and camel. What do you expect?"
But many here are not so optimistic, fearing that the announcement of the official results on Wednesday may set off huge demonstrations in Addis Ababa and other cities. Both the ruling party and the main opposition coalitions have already claimed victory.
"We are very afraid," said Minetslnot Endabe, 17, a goat seller. "We want peace, peace only, because if there is a fight for power it becomes my problem. We could lose everything."
The elections have been a historic event for this country of 74 million people, the vast majority of whom live in distant rural communities.
The ruling party, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, for the first time opened up state media to allow opposition parties to present their platforms. Party leaders and opposition politicians squared off in more than a dozen live televised debates. That, in turn, sparked a huge turnout, when more than 90% of the estimated 26 million voters cast ballots; some waited more than 10 hours to vote.
Since then, results have trickled out from the elections board. Last weekend, the board released provisional results that showed the ruling party winning 283 seats so far, which would give it a majority in the 547-seat parliament.
The board said the main opposition party, the Coalition for Unity and Democracy, had won 110 seats. But the opposition has filed complaints of alleged fraud or irregularities in 139 constituencies, throwing the result into question. Some international observers have strongly criticised the ruling party for claiming victory only a day after the vote.
EU election observers last week also questioned the delay in releasing tallies.
The board's delays, said the EU team, "risk increasing the scope for manipulation and consequently putting in doubt public confidence in the process".
Tamrat Giorgis, managing editor of the Fortune newspaper, an independent English-language weekly, said: "Ethiopia is now at a crossroads. There's a very good chance the country could take a more democratic path and uphold the rule of law - and there's a very good chance that it could slide back."
The opposition Coalition for Unity and Democracy won all 23 parliament seats in the capital, Addis Ababa, according to the elections board. The ruling party has conceded the seats. In the last election five years ago, the opposition had just 12 seats in parliament.
Analysts say the opposition parties have benefited mainly from unhappiness at the ruling party's inability to deliver basic services and lift people out of poverty. If the ruling party peacefully handed over the control of Addis Ababa, Giorgis said, that alone would be unprecedented in Ethiopia.
"It would be the first power transfer without violence in the history of the country," he said.
Ethiopia has a proud history of independence. Except for a five-year occupation by Mussolini's Italy, the country resisted colonisation even as European powers took control of countries all over sub-Saharan Africa.
In 1974, a Marxist junta overthrew Emperor Haile Selassie. Rebels, including the prime minister, Meles Zenawi, toppled the regime in 1991 and have ruled since.
In recent years, following the disastrous war with Eritrea in the late 1990s, investor confidence has begun to rise slightly. In parts of Addis, the skyline is undergoing a rapid transformation with the construction of more than a dozen high-rise buildings.
Yet, the nouveau riche are vastly outnumbered by a huge underclass of desperately poor people. Nearly two-thirds of Ethiopians are illiterate. During this period of growth, Addis Ababa has swelled to a population of around five million, attracting rural people with the possibility of low paid jobs.
At the University of Addis Ababa, a stronghold for the opposition, several students expressed unhappiness about the vote count.
"We don't know who to believe," said Fasil Tsezaye, 29, who is studying public health issues.
If the electoral commission announces the ruling party is victorious, he expects opponents to demonstrate on the streets. "I'm worried the country will split along ethnic lines," Tsezaye said.