Blind FaithCommissions and Sexy, your posts were great thank you.
I have been reluctant to post all I know on these boards because it seems pointless.
I have done complete DD and continue to follow the development of drugs in this space. Adherex has always been punished with regards to market cap and I don't know why. I always assumed that it was because they were Canadian and no one knew they existed. That is obviously changing.
I have done some present value analysis on the stock price. When I included all the assets 1)GSK drug 2) ADH-1 3) STS 4) IP on other compounds 5) Cash. The value was very high I'm not even going to tell you what it was because it doesn't really matter. The fact is you have to discount that by the odds of bringing these drugs to market. If you do that the price is still much much higher than current.
I have been early on a lot of investments and after doing DD and having faith in the company it is astounding how long it can stay undervalued and then all of a sudden something seemingly insignificant happens, a news paper article, ROB TV, CNN whatever and the stock takes off and is all of a sudden worth more than your analysis indicates.
To put it another way, What is the downside of this stock?
If they were to run out of cash and be forced to sell to someone at bargin basement prices what would all the patents STS and ADH-1 be worth 50 million $25?
Lets assume $40 Million that means you loose 50% from current value. What is the upside.
I think the company can easily be worth 500 million That is 625% from current.
If you want a GIC at 2% go to the bank. This is a speculative stock in a sector that has been hammered over the last 4-5 years. Coincidentally that is exactly how long biotech cycles last. If you sell now you will absolutely Kick yourself later. We are all early we just need patience and faith.
I think this is the best investment position I have ever been in.
Sorry for the rambling I feel like SS, although hopefully a lot more understandable!