TSXV:RUN.H - Post by User
Comment by
Etruscanson Aug 22, 2005 7:39pm
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Post# 9444906
RE: Time to "ROCK and ROLL"
RE: Time to "ROCK and ROLL"Ran a few numbers over lunch to see how profitable this stock could be with the first well only (discounting the company's gold assets as well as the 27 other sections within Fox's acreage.) In other words, how much would this stock be worth if the expected gas flow potential of that first well was 10 Mmcf/day (RUN 15% WI), which is the most pessimistic scenatio advanced by Running Fox Resource and its partners. (The most optimistic scenario is a production of 35 Mmcf/day. The truth is probably somewhere in between.)
I find the comparison between RUN and IOG particularly compelling in terms of cashflow, earnings, production and outstanding shares in circulation. I guess you can see where this stock is heading. This stock won't stay at .50 very long. Natural gas closed today at $9.564/MMBtu.
EXPECTED PRODUCTION: 10 MMcf/day -- NET RUN : 1.5 MMcf/day
CONVERSION : 1.5MMcf/ = 1,539 MMbtu/day
SCENARIO 1 - PRICE MMBtu : $9/MMBtu
REVENUE : $13,851/DAY OR $5,055,615/YEAR OR 0.46/SHARE
NET INCOME 15% : .069/SHARE X PE/RATIO 15 = $1.035/SHARE
SCENARIO 2 - PRICE MMBtu : $7/MMBtu
REVENUE : $10,773/DAY OR $3,932,145/YEAR OR 0.36/SHARE
NET INCOME 15% : .054/SHARE X PE RATIO 15 = .81/SHARE