RE: NG@15, inventory deficit by winterTUI is a junior with 70% NG and unhedged. They are merging with trust TKE.UN which is 70% NG and partially hedged until Oct 31, 2005 but TUI production is 2.5 times as large as that of TKE.UN. TUI management will be mostly running the new ship and there is currently no hedging in place after Nov 1 which is around the time for the marriage to consumate.
FWIW we have also held ECA for many years. It looks very good here except for it's hedging. Cheers!!!