RE: Questions and assumptionsI followed this stock for a long time and saw their complete failures in Mexico, and Canadan NG projects, and the relevant people fired and management shakeup multiple times. During the same period, other NG or CBM companies have gone 10 fold to 20 fold, while ADB is still in the same pit.
Right now, the only value for this company is US CBM projects, and it is undervalued at the current stock price. I view their values are the leases they now owned. My guess is that it should be $2 to $3 now based on their asset value alone. With NG price around $12, and they have billions of NG reserve and resources, the stock is under valued.
I am not sure that they can deliver the reduced target post because they need to increase 200$ of their current output, and that is very aggressive. It is doable if the weather and bank cooperating, and they have 3 months to do so.
But, I will look for
1) New financing for the company;
2) Another management reorganization so that only NG people run the show;
3) Hopefully new drill program will be on target.
If ADB can do 1 and 2, the stock should go higher, and if ADB can do 3), it should jump.