COMMON COPPER TO TRIPLE - & SILVER?COMMON COPPER TO TRIPLE - & SILVER?
Tuesday, October 18, 2005 - FreeMarketNews.com
Over the span of recorded history, much gold, copper and silver have been mined. In the case of gold, however, almost all of it is either readily available, stored in central bank vaults, or at least visible, as in jewelry. In the case of copper and silver however, most above-ground supplies have been consumed in commercial or industrial applications, with relatively little being recycled.
Faced with this situation, copper, one of the earth’s most common metals, has nonetheless tripled in price during the past few years. Silver, much less common, but rapidly being “used up” in increasingly large amounts by a ravenous industrial juggernaut of global proportions, has less than doubled from its 2001 lows. Ted Butler, writing on investmentrarities.com thinks that’s pretty amazing, and has built the case that above-ground supplies of silver substantially less than gold, and its price is poised for a very large increase in the reasonably near future. Counters to his argument have been both few and tepid. He writes, “I have been anticipating any serious challenge to my statement, and none have been forthcoming. … I make the point that silver is priced too low compared to gold, not that gold is priced too high.”
He continues, “The pace of silver consumption is accelerating. … After using 30 billion ounces in the last 60 years, present patterns of growth suggest that we will use that same amount in only the next 30 years, double the previous rate of consumption. … Here’s the problem. We are still consuming more silver than we mine, but we don’t have 10 billion ounces in inventory anymore to subsidize the shortfall in production. We would be lucky if we have 1 billon ounces left above ground."
And he adds, “That remaining silver is largely in private hands, not bureaucratic hands, and only sharply higher prices will pry it free. In addition, statistics suggest that increased mining production will run into cost constraints and resource limitations. That means big and growing demand colliding with inventory and production constraints. That’s a powerful long-term investment formula, if one ever existed. It’s a whole new ball game for silver; a game that’s just beginning.” -DS
staff reports - Free-Market News Network