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Ovintiv Inc OVV

Alternate Symbol(s):  T.OVV

Ovintiv Inc. is an oil and natural gas exploration and production company. The Company is focused on the development of its multi-basin portfolio of top tier oil and natural gas assets located in the United States and Canada. Its operations also include the marketing of oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and natural gas. Its segments include USA Operations, Canadian Operations, and Market Optimization. USA Operations segment includes the exploration for, development of, and production of oil, NGLs, natural gas and other related activities within the United States. Canadian Operations segment includes the exploration for, development of, and production of oil, NGLs, natural gas and other activities within Canada. Market Optimization segment is primarily responsible for the sale of the Company’s production to third-party customers and enhancing the associated netback price. The segment’s activities also include third-party purchases and sales of product to provide operational flexibility.


NYSE:OVV - Post by User

Bullboard Posts
Post by dealmaker0on Oct 30, 2005 8:42pm
536 Views
Post# 9788939

Don Cox

Don CoxThank you for tuning in to the call, which comes to you from Toronto. The chart that we faxed out was of natural gas futures and the tag line was "Problem for Hedgers and Consumers". So I want to lead off with the consumer side of it because in talking to institutional investors in the last couple of weeks, one of the things that comes up at 90% of the meetings is a question "What about demand destruction because of high energy prices?" And so, the answer that I've given at all of these meetings is that one should be very cautious about assuming we have statistical confirmation that $60 oil has produced a big drop in demand for oil. And in the case of natural gas we have no evidence on this whatever at this stage. One of the reasons why I think you should be cautious about this, is first of all, that the figures that they have on this are US refinery sensitive and US refineries, of course, we've lost a lot of capacity in the United States, temporarily, because of Katrina and Rita. So, I'm not clear on exactly how those numbers are being drawn because one of the things they can't really get good numbers on is demand at all the gas stations in the United States because there are so many thousands of them, many of which aren't branded by Big Oil, they're various independents or even down to Mom and Pop operations. So, I think the other point that I make is simply that we're in a change of seasons, since all of this unfolded and the seasonal adjustment factors are big items and you should always be cautious where it's season adjustment factors that are leading to a conclusion. That said, there's obviously no doubt that - to the extent that people have much of a choice about it - if it costs you three dollars a gallon to gas up your Navigator, you're going to be a little more cautious about it on average than if it costs you two dollars a gallon. But, I can tell you that what I've told the clients, I would be delighted as one who goes out to the O'Hare airport along I-90 and 94, I would be delighted to see demand destruction showing up in terms of the Interstate highways in Chicago because that would make my travel a lot easier. And I still think that's where most driving is done and the statistics on trucking show that demand for diesel is holding up very well because that industry is strong. I think that, to support the 15% sell-off that we've had in the oil and gas group, since quarter end, on the basis that there's evidence of a drop in demand which is going to force prices down...very much a premature response. Certainly if that is justifiable, it's been more than accounted for by the sell-off in these stocks. Now the natural gas story is one that has already claimed a sort of a victim with Encana, which has been mentioned in these calls for a year now in the hedging aspect. Encana, since they reported their third quarter numbers, they were the first out of the box, the stock is down seven dollars and eighty cents. And the headline in the Globe and Mail Report on Business here yesterday was "Hedge Contracts Blast Encana Profits". Now this is the first time, frankly, that this hedging matter seems to have drawn any attention whatever, from the media or from the markets. Now you've heard my complaints on these calls and I published an issue of Basic Points about foxes and hedgehogs, talking about what I thought was the significance of these massive forward sales by companies. There's no question that the decision to make the forward sales is a business decision based on long-established business practices. We're not talking here about something that's wildly erratic. But, having said that, when you've sold short, for example, as PetroCanada has, half of your North Sea production from the Buzzard Field through to the end of the decade at $26 a barrel, the market should not assign the same value to your North Sea exposure that it does to companies who haven't sold it short. And in the case of Encana, when they bought Tom Brown, they were told by their Wall Street investment bankers that they should lock in the high prices for natural gas at $5 and $6 an MCF to make sure that that deal worked out. And given the sheer scale of the Tom Brown purchase, which made Encana number one in natural gas in the US, that was a reasonable business strategy. But, capitalism, of course, pays off on the basis of the business strategies that give you good results and so therefore it's not a question of saying the management is poor, it's just a question of what's happened then on a mark-to-market basis as required by Rule number 133, the cost of those hedging contracts, is gigantic. Now as they point out, most of these are going to get run off this year and next year. So the way to look at them is simply that they are a special debt item on the balance sheet where their value gets adjusted each quarter in relation to what the price is of oil and gas at the end of the quarter. And so it's a temporary thing, unless you see the company doing very long-term forward sales. Now one of the reasons we've stuck with this is because of our metric for valuing oil stocks and mining stocks, which is different from The Street. We say you value them on the basis of secure reserves in the ground, secure in two ways: politically secure and that the value attaches to the stockholders. And frankly we learned all this from the gold mining industry in the 90's, where the great success story of the 90's was Barrick, which used the contango contract on gold, which meant that the out-months were always higher than the spot, to always get, on a realized price for gold, higher than gold ever traded that year. It was brilliant financial engineering. Because gold was in a triple waterfall crash, which had begun in 1980 and it lasted until, of course, the year 2000. So that strategy was the brilliant strategy and was the right strategy. But the problem with that, is that when it turns around then what you've got is all these forward hedges, which then become really expensive to you. And that's what happened to Barrick and Ashanti Gold. Now the mining and oil industries were able to resist this in terms of the way they set up their balance sheets and earning statements until Paul Volcker's group, the International Accounting Standards Board, got the FASB also to change their rules and call these contracts derivatives, which meant they had to be marked-to-market like all other derivatives. So that means that companies registered with the SEC have to report this way. And to me it's the same kind of argument we had about stock options in the 1990's. The mining and oil industry objected to Volcker, saying we've always done it this way, why should we call these derivatives, these are simply prudent devices to reduce volatility in our earnings. And that was the same argument, in effect, that they used in stock options, was, we reduced our cash employment costs, this is a non-cash item, therefore we shouldn't have to account for it. So, when people like me pointed out that when you looked through the stock options, a company such as Cisco, which at that time was the second most valuable company in the world, was earning almost no money. But we were told, it's a non-cash item, you don't know anything about technology anyway, forget about it. So maybe the analogy isn't full here, but I still think that ultimately the stock market will reward most the companies that don't have big hedging arrangements. And I say that partly because when I talk to people who are enthusiastic investors in commodity stocks, they are almost without exception people who believe that commodity prices are going up. And so, if you invest in a company that hedges heavily, then it's the equivalent of investing in a market-neutral fund and if you're an equity investor, if you really love the outlook for the stock market, you wouldn't invest in a fund that's both long and short. You'd want one that's purely long. Now it's true that from a business standpoint, being purely long is an arguable strategy, particularly if you're buying assets and borrowing to do so. But, again, you've got to separate out here from the standpoint what is maybe a sound strategy within the company, to what kind of stocks you should own, depending on why you buy them at all. So, our theory is, the reason you should buy commodity stocks is commodity prices - and we use a five-year time horizon - are going up. And we never try to tell you what they're going to do in the near-term and of course hedgers have to deal with what happens in the near-term so they've got a different kind of challenge. But that doesn't mean that you as an investor, if the reason you're investing in commodities, that you should be invested heavily in the companies that are using those strategies. To me, they're less attractive, if you share this view. If, on the other hand, you are simply interested investing in them as business organizations that have sound business practices and you think the oil and gas business is a good one, then these probably should be your choice. So, understand why it is you invest in oil and gas and mining stocks and you get a sense as to which companies are going to go best with your personal make-up. So this doesn't say that one strategy is right and another is wrong. What it says is, you buy the stock not the company. So what you want to buy the stock of companies who believe, like you, that prices are going up or you want to buy the stock of companies who say that prices have always gone down so we're going to sell short huge quantities of our future production so that when the prices go down, stockholders aren't hurt. So that's the last I'll say for some time on this. Because I've talked about it so much perhaps the only reason I come back to it is because I've had so much resistance at meetings with institutional investors who point out that the companies a) don't agree with me and b) the reason why oil analysts don't agree with me, most of them at least, is because this is just not sound business practice that I'm advocating. I'm not advocating a particular kind of business practice. I am simply saying you're reason for being in oil and gas and mining stocks is you think the outlook for commodity prices is good, then maybe you want to buy stock of companies who are prepared to bet the way you do. Now, it is a week in which on the front page of the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, they're referring to the gigantic profits of Big Oil and talking about the political problems of Big Oil earning all this money. Exxon managed, by taking some write-offs and such, to keep their quarterly profit just under $10 billion. Nine point nine odd, something, and so ha ha, obviously this was something that 10 looked more menacing to the public than 9.9. Shell's profits were up 81% at just over $9 billion. BP's up 34%. I mean the numbers are fabulous. Well, by coincidence, it's the twentieth anniversary of the national energy policy, which was the most elaborate policy that I know of, designed to extract the excess profits from the oil industry. And so, looking back through history, it's marvelous to see how it all worked out. It was an absolute disaster for the oil industry in Canada, it was a disaster for Calgary. It was a disaster for the Liberal Party in Alberta, but the fellow who drew up the policies and sold them ended up being President of a Canadian bank. So, there were winners and losers from all of this. But what I think we've learned from the national energy policy in Canada is that it was a dumb policy. It was built on a bias against Alberta and the oil industry, in the key places were Toronto and Montreal, which is basically where the Liberal Party gets elected from. And so any time you use a regional elites views to go against a region and a major industry, you're preceding probably from logic which isn't designed from logic, but from bias. So, it didn't work out, but we all learned from that experience and I don't expect the US is going to replicate it and in any case there isn't a chance that notwithstanding the huffing and puffing going on in Congress that there will be anything serious done against the energy industry. The energy bill, which was designed to, although it's a monstrosity, at least has some good provisions in it for encouraging building of refineries, which in terms of what needs to be done most in the US in the near term, what needs to be done to increase the production of natural gas and increase refinery throughput. Because if we've learned anything in the last nine months it is that there is going to be no light oil, new light oil coming, out of the Gulf states. It's all heavy crude. And so, even if the Saudis do manage to expand their output the way they're bragging, it's going to be heavy crude. And so you've got to have the refineries to accommodate it. Again, interesting enough, at long last, a front page story in the New York Times that the administration is now getting somewhat upset about all those Saudi promises to keep raising oil production and they're wondering whether the Saudis have either the productive capacity or the reserves that they were assuring Bush that they had. Well, as you know from our exchanges with Al Jazeera and so forth, we are of the view that Ghawar has peaked and if Ghawar has peaked then it's improbable that the Saudis can vastly expand output and that means that...and if they do, it's all going to be heavy crude. The Saudis themselves admitted, that when they said they were going to expand output by five million barrels a day in the next five years, that it was all going to be heavy crude. So if there's no more Saudi light to come along, that's a big statistic and it's another reason, oddly enough, why the Canadian oil sands stocks are attractive, because with upgraders, what they do is produce or can produce a superior product even to West Texas Intermediate. So, the argument about the oil situation is more complicated than just how many barrels of oil produced. It's a question of what kind of oil and who has the refining capacity to use what's available. So that the price of something that people can use, whether it's gasoline or distallate, is at a price that they're not wildly unhappy to pay. And so, I would hope that now that we're looking at these kinds of profits that something like that would happen but I'm not going to be my life on a good outcome. Statistic for you, though. The twelve biggest oil companies made a hundred billion bucks last year. And they've now got, according to the latest statistics, more than a hundred billion in cash on their balance sheets. Now this is, to me, a really big number. When you figure, that they've had six years where they've failed to replace their production. And the decline has been accelerating; in the last three years it's been really bad in terms of output in relation to where they were before and failing to replace the reserves. So we've got a declining trend and we've got the fact that the twelve biggest oil companies that trade around the world on various exchanges are trading roughly at their reserve life indices. No matter how much money they make - and their profits are truly gigantic - the market will not pay up above the reserve life index. Which makes sense. Because the investor says "Look, I don't want just a return of capital, I want a return on capital. If in effect, what you're paying out for profits is capital, then I'm not going to assign a big multiple to that. So you're a form of royalty trust, only I don't get the kind of breaks that a royalty trust does on taxes or at least until Canada's Finance Minister doesn't play around with them. So my point here is that the situation in the oil industry can be taken simply out of two quotes from Lee Raymond, now that I've given you those numbers. Four years ago he said that we wouldn't even see $50 oil, because in the unlikely event that demand came up to catch supply, he and the other major oil companies would bring on so much new production from Russia and from Venezuela that that would drive oil prices back down. Four months ago, he came out and said "ExxonMobil will not commit new money to Russia and Venezuela, the political risks are too great". And so, from my standpoint that explains why Big Oil has a hundred billion dollars of cash on its balance sheets, despite a record level of stock buybacks. It's that they don't have a place to go to replace their output. Which is why I believe it's so important what this SEC decision is going to be and you know, I have no better information than anybody else. I get calls asking when will it be coming. I believe it has to come before year-end because the companies have to use it in their accounting. The application was filed in February. So when it does come and I see no reason why it shouldn't favor the industry that allowed them to account for the value of oil sands in the reserve life index, what you're going to have is an immediate place to deploy a good part of that hundred billion to get the reserve life index back up. And since there's this correlation between the reserve life index and the P/E ratio, what an oil company can do, a big one, by buying one of the oil sands companies, is they can make their whole company worth far more. And that's the real story behind it. Now finally, I'd like to just make a light reference to the unfolding story of the big corporate pension plans in the United States and the SEC getting involved. General Motosr is the one they've lead off with and there's rumors of course of bankruptcy at GM which have been denied but they're asking a bunch of other companies such as Boeing, about the details. Let me explain what I think I know about this from my years of work in this field. The argument comes down to a very simple one, which is that under the current accounting rules that you have for pension funds, FAS 187, what you have is a situation that you are allowed to make assumptions going forward about your returns on the various asset classes and your actuaries can approve assumed return rates on them, based on historical evidence. And to the extent that you don't realize those, it's a hedge against current earnings but it doesn't change the fundamentals of your pension balance sheet. So, for example, as I've mentioned in previous conference calls, I've found it amusing year after year to see IBM's annual statement where they assume returns on their bond portfolio of over 8%. And their pension fund. And they're asked, Wall Street rarely asks this question, "How can you assume that?" and they say "Well that's what we've earned...that's less than we've actually earned on our bonds over the last fifteen years and so actuarially, that's the right assumption to use. Now, the fact that they can get away with this in a period of time in which the interest rate on Treasury bonds went from 10% down to 4% and that you're allowed to use the gains you had in bonds in that period and say they're going to happen going forward, now it's amazing to me that they can do it, but they do. And undoubtedly General Motors is using the same kind of approach, which is, we've got historical evidence to justify it. Look, we can prove that our technology stock portfolio was wonderful because the average return on NASDAQ for the last fifteen years has been huge. And so therefore we can assume it's going to be that way going forward. So this is a quick distillation of what the real issue I think is, on the funding of corporate pension plans. What should you be allowed as your assumed rate of return? And the government, the PBGC is telling them that they should use the rate of return on long Treasuries. And of course if these pension plans are forced to cut back to that, there's a real blow. And what they're saying is they should be allowed to continue doing what they've always done which is, use historical rates of return of the asset classes. Now those of you who listen to these calls know that I think in an era of triple waterfall out there, you've got to be very cautious about using historic rates of return or at least rates of the last fifteen years and then projecting them forward. So, over that issue, if these pension funds are forced to use long-term Treasury rates, then we are going to deal with situations of major corporate bankruptcies, it's that simple. Because it will just wipe them out. And it's another reason, I think, frankly, why the S&P is not a very attractive index, because so many of these major corporations are in the position where if they had to use the rate of return on the 10-Year note, to value their pension funds, their pension liabilities would just explode. So, the story is just beginning, but I'm telling you that it's no more just a Page Sixteen story, it's probably made it to Page Twelve. But it's one worth watching, because I think that the position of the corporations is so wrong, in terms of reality out there, that they're quite likely to lose on this one. So, we'll see how the story plays out but it's another reason for being dubious about having a price/earnings ratio of fifteen on the S&P and seventeen if you take out the energy group, which I think you should, because they're functioning in a world all their own. So, finally, I would just like to once again, pay tribute to Paul Volcker. The latest service he's given is his report on the oil for food program of Saddam Hussein, which was run by the UN. Now that we have a new Fed chairman of the Board of Governors, Ben Bernanke, people are saying that Alan Greenspan is the greatest Fed Chairman ever. This corner says no, it's Paul Volcker by far, the greatest of all. And he's gone on from there to set up the International Accounting Standards Board, which because of its success has improved the functioning of the FASB. And I believe that the work that they've done is the key reason why risk parameters have not widened this year despite all the bad news we've had out there, a theme I'm going to be taking up in future calls. And he's given us this service to show us that some of the most conspicuous supporters of Saddam Hussein and the most consipicuous opponents of any kinds of attack on Saddam Hussein were being paid millions and millions of dollars in bribes. So, this is the kind of work he does. A great civil servant and a servant to the world, I don't know what he's going to take on next, but he's in a league of his own. Apart from the fact that he's the only central banker I know who stands six feet six, he does bestride the world like a colossus. That's it, any other questions? Thomas F.: Don, several calls ago you had suggested that perhaps the energy stocks had reached a peak and you felt that if investors wanted to or needed to invest in energy the best area would be natural gas. Do you feel that way at this point? Don Coxe: Well, I still feel the single best way is that limited group of companies, the Alberta oil sands companies. They're a special situation. But beyond that, as a generalization, I still believe that natural gas is the best play and in terms of the US-stocks, the natural gas-levered stocks are the best ones because what you've got there is a situation where it's just not clear that the shortage can go away. Whereas in oil, if you believe the consensus and if you believe Daniel Yergin and if you believe the International Energy Agency and all these then great amounts of new production are going to come on stream over the next five years. So, the risk levels are different and the other thing frankly, is that the natural gas industry is one where what we've had is twenty-six straight years of falling production in the lower 48 states. I mean, this is such a clear picture of falling supplies and the only thing that was going to supposedly bail out the US was the pipeline to bring down gas from the Arctic region. And, you know, I frankly think that we're likely to be driving cars that are fueled by hydrogen before that pipeline gets built unless they change the political circumstances. So, what's standing in the way there is something that because of the Inuit tribes, is a true impasse. And yet I talk to people in the US industry and they still think this pipeline is coming soon, as their savior. Well, I don't. So, the natural gas stocks and the service stocks, again, I keep citing the New York Times, here, but they've got a wonderful piece today on the extreme shortage of rigs and most importantly of people to drill. And the drilling that's being done in the lower 48 states is overwhelmingly for gas. But it's also, apart from deepwater Gulf of Mexico, for small pockets of gas or for coalbed methane. So, for conventional gas, what's available there is small stuff. So, to me it's a terrific thing to be in and I don't think the stocks are reflecting, the kind of price that there is there. And the other thing is, frankly, the oil stocks are priced globally, the natural gas stocks are priced locally. And it's quite clear, as I've made clear earlier on the call, that the oil stocks are priced globally on the basis of the global price of oil and the reserve life index of the industry. So therefore, since some companies reserve life index, the big companies and oil companies are going to decline, because there just isn't stuff out there to drill. The natural gas companies are priced on the basis of the local price of natural gas and their own reserve life indices and I think they represent better likely value in the marketplace. Thank you. Any other questions? Arthur Gray: Good morning to you, Don. Following up on Tom Fitzgerald's question, areas to invest. Is it too soon, or is it time to look at another area, such as uranium with the nuclear possibility becoming more of a probability all the time? Don Coxe: [sigh] Yeah, I get asked this question so much in client meetings and I have to give you a weak answer, which is, that for the past four years I've been trying, in my work, to get institutional investors to overweight commodity stocks. And it's been an uphill battle. Finally, in the last year it's started to come true. And particularly with US institutional investors that I see, it's a tough sell. Largely because of the demography, when I go in to a meeting where we've got all these recent graduates from Ivy League schools sitting there and they're interested in technology and what they consider growth stocks. And they consider the mining and oil industries old, polluting industries that are sunset industries and all we're talking about is a short-term speculative play. So, what I have to do is take them through the arguments for oil, gas, copper, nickel and zinc. If I go to uranium, I know, that given where they went to university, that they were part of a group which was demonstrating against nuclear plants when they were in college. And so I've got a very much bigger problem because I have a basic ideology of theirs to deal with. So, frankly I've decided it wasn't worth my while to make that case. Because this is a case in which left-wing ideology of the Parlor Pinks and Latte Liberals is so deeply entrenched that it's much easier...you can get them to finally believe because they do drive cars and they do heat their homes, that oil, gas and metals can be attractive investments, at least for a while, until something better comes along. But as soon as you talk about nuclear power, what you do is you velicate a whole set of emotional ganglia and the meeting is lost. So that's why I haven't done it and that's why on conference call, if I take up the subject I'd be buried under. So it's cowardice, it's sheer cowardice. Thanks, Arthur. Paul: Yes, Hi Don. I had e-mailed you about the SEC ruling and I'd like a follow-up question on it. Let's say that this ruling doesn't come as planned, or as fast as planned, do you see any disasters happening, since there's a hundred billion dollar cash on hand that these companies have, from them deriving from their core business and maybe investing in potential ventures that could be disastrous for them. And I heard the Saints in football are moving, so they might want to buy a football team or something crazy in that sense. What do you think about that? Don Coxe: Well, you're absolutely right that back in the 70's, when Big Oil got nationalized in the Arabian Gulf, that they proceeded to go in to other ventures, they bought up mining companies and they had to write all of those things down because they didn't know what they were in, and they got in to other ventures so they had a record of disastrous adventures, like Bell Canada in Canada which had excess profits out of the regulated telephone industry and went in to a whole wide range of investments nearly all of which had to be written down. So, I put those in the same category as being serial destroyers of stockholder value in the 1980's. The oil companies, this time, first of all, if they bought the Saints at the going price of $600 million, and we're talking about any of the companies with big operations in the Gulf, that's a few days of current profits now. If they got a stadium named after them now, that would be a few minutes of current profits. So, they've got more room to do something stupid than they've had before. But, I also, frankly, don't think that is likely to happen, just because the people who are running these companies are very much aware of predictions that they're going to blow the money. So, I still think that a large part of that is earmarked against one of two developments. That Hugh Chavez disappears. Or that Vladimir Putin says that what I've been doing for the last three years is wrong. I'm going to restore true free markets. Or, that the SEC comes up with a ruling favorable to valuing oil sands reserves. You can guess which of those three I think is the most likely event. Any other questions? Operator:Your final question is a follow-up question from Thomas Fitzgerald. Tom: Don, two questions. One, what is the refining capacity for crude in Europe? There's been quite a bit of importing of gasoline, as you know. Second question, what is t prospect for what appears to be some rumblings in Congress about an excess profit tax on energy companies. Don Coxe: Okay, the last one I just mentioned briefly at the beginning of the call, that because of the make up of Congress now and the White House, notwithstanding these rumblings I don't think anything serious will happen. Whether it does lead to a revised energy bill, which actually does something worthwhile to stimulate natural gas production, LNG and refinery construction, I don't know. But as to an excess profits tax, Bush has a perfect record of never vetoing anything, that certainly would get vetoed, for the same reasons, I think, you would be able to cite the Canadian experience with the national energy program. As to European capacity for refinining, you make a very good point and thanks for asking the question, which is, that all the statistics we had show there were lots of combined refinery capacity worldwide when you add in Singapore, North America and Europe. What is not clear, I haven't seen any recent work on this, is if we're gradually going to increase, quarter by quarter, year by year, the percentage of heavy crude in the total consumption of oil, let's say that the current percentage of the 82 million barrel a day that's being refined is "x" and if year by year the percentage of total output there declines by 10%, which is the light crude, and so we're putting more and more strain and refinery capacity in dealing with heavy crude, I think we may be well near, given that the spreads between heavy and light have stayed so wide, we may already be straining the refinery capacity to handle heavy crude. I'm strongly of the view that there isn't new light crude to be found in the Gulf in any size and so if we in fact are going to rely on the Gulf, to take care of growing demand then what we've got is a real squeeze on refining capacity and it's not just in the US it's also in Europe. Thank you all for tuning in, we'll talk to you next week. Don Coxe Profile from the BMO websites: Donald G. M. Coxe is Chairman and Chief Strategist of Harris Investment Management, and Chairman of Jones Heward Investments. Mr. Coxe has 27 years experience in institutional investing, including a decade as CEO of a Canadian investment counseling firm and six years on Wall Street as a 'sell-side' portfolio strategist advising institutional investors. In addition, Mr. Coxe has experience with pension fund planning, including liability analysis, and tactical asset allocation. His educational background includes an undergraduate degree from the University of Toronto and a law degree from Osgoode Hall Law School. Don joined Harris in September, 1993.
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