Aleafia Health Inc ALEAF

My take on this year's outdoor Harvest results...

[sincitywizard]

Back in June I was asking where the photos were of the planting of this years outdoor grow, as last year plants were already in the ground by mid-June and were planted with help of students from Niagara.  Many on this board were asking for proof of planting as we had not seen any photos of the planting or drone footage like we got last year by that time.

After last years harvest (2019), management put out very optimistic guidance:

"Based on the 2019 results, the Company estimates that it can produce 1,200 kg per acre for a total of 102,000 kg of dried flower in 2020 at its expanded 3.7 million sq. ft. (86 acre) outdoor site, at full capacity. The modest increase in the expected yield per acre for 2020 is due a number of factors which should improve the overall outdoor grow operation, including commencing cultivation several weeks earlier relative to 2019."

So what happened between then (Nov. 2019) and now to impact the yield of this year's harvest?  We all know the answer - COVID-19.

From today's release, we learnt that "Covid-19 related delays in municipal building permit authorizations led to the installation of in-ground irrigation and nutrient lines for the newly licensed Phase II expansion not  being completed until July. Concurrently, a heat wave prevented planting until all irrigation was in place."

So that explains the somewhat disapointing yield from this year's harvest as they did not meet many people's expectations.  That being said, we did TRIPLE last year's harvest yield, and things look good for the future.  No capital expenditures are expected for infrastructure for 2021 outdoor grow, and they plan to plant earlier as explained in press release. 

I have read many negative posts on this Board about "where are they going to sell all of their weed?"  Which is nothing but scare mongering.

Check the Alberta Cannabis Store and you will see that their vapes are sold out at present.  I don't even see vapes for sale on Ontario site yet, although I do see more SKU's now available for flower, pre-rolls, oils and sprays.  Product is being sold in other provinces, One Plant , Shopers Drug Mart and of course to all of their Medical patients through their clinics.  The focus is being shifted to the Adult recreation and Medical markets as opposed to selling cheaply to other licensed producers so I expect better margins in the future.  EU-GMP certification should be coming any day now (which has probably been delayed by Covid as well) which will be a HUGE catalyst.

Now that we have the harvest from this year's grow and perpetual indoor harvests at Niagara, we should be able to roll out all of our 2.0 products (vapes, Kinslips, edibles) to sell on both Adult Rec and Medicinal markets with higher margins. Add international markets to the mix with Acnos Pharma and CannaPacific and we have many catalyst for the future.

Again, with a outoor harvest yield that triples last year's harvest, one would think that we should be able to at least double our share price in the not too distant future.  I don't expect blow out earnings next week, but who knows, there could be surprises due to the fact Acnos in Germany has been licensed since September and has had the ability to sell (buy wholesale from other producers and sell retail).

Long investors have a lot to look forward to - especially Q4 earnings.  I expect 2021 to be a very exciting time for all Aleafia longs. 

GLTA,

The Wiz

[stocktracker101]

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[sincitywizard]

I don't see where they gave guidance in their Q2 August 12 earnings call transcript or in a press release from that date about having  a "66,000 kgs yield".  The only update given on August 12th on outdoor grow that I see in print was: "On May 12, 2020, the Company’s wholly owned subsidiary Aleafia Farms Inc. secured a Health Canada Licence Amendment for its Port

[IMB]

That number is in the notes of the financals

[stocktracker101]

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[sincitywizard]

That was quick!  Thanks for sharing.   From the note you shared:  "As of June 30, 2020, the biological assets strains at the flowering phase were on average 74% and 12.5% complete for indoor plants and strains and outdoor plants respectively. As of June 30, 2020, it was estimated that the Company’s biological assets would yield approximately 66,000 kilograms of medical

[IMB]

you are correct it is total for both. but there is no way they had 35000 kg in the green houses.

[AllBeefNoFiller]

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[maramos98]

Since 15% of harvest is still in drying phase there was no urgency to issue PR today. They could have waited until earnings release on the 11th. They definitely wanted to get this out prior to earnings release

[Miamirules]

So guys if greenhouse produces 15k a year and outdoor is 30 k .. 45 k plus Paris small rooms.. etc . Oils sell at$30.00 a bottle and contain less than a gram of actual cbd  flower .. ? Something to think about !! 

[AllBeefNoFiller]

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[Miamirules]

Ok guys I did research on old info from Aleafia .. It was reported that initially their was 10300 kg harvested on nov 11 2019 .. 3 weeks later it was revised after drying to 12747 kg ! So yes everyone on this board is right that after drying the numbers will be higher ! 

[AllBeefNoFiller]

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[Miamirules]

Your still upset about RWB ... Well $ .70 is better than .54 !  Let's hope the earnings are decent because the spread might be higher . Aleafia management has really let us all down ! 

[Miamirules]

Just so you know I've own this stock for 3 long years !!  CHANGING subject I looked at my old notes on Aleafia and they stated their estimates for entire greenhouse to be 38000 kg .  I would be happy with 20k now lol! 

[AllBeefNoFiller]

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[Urby1981]

And your a joke good luck with your life

[Urby1981]

All beef nobrain

[AllBeefNoFiller]

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[AllBeefNoFiller]

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[stocktracker101]

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[stocktracker101]

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[stocktracker101]

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[AllBeefNoFiller]

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[Miamirules]

What is the indoor harvest capacity ? I was told 15k 

[stocktracker101]

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[Miamirules]

So basically we will  have 46000k between now and December 1 2021 ... If they actually process everything themselves instead of selling wholesale, your talking revenue of close to 200 million .. Let's hope Aleafia does in fact try to do this ! Next December hopefully we get the 80k to 100k crop ! 

[AllBeefNoFiller]

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[AllBeefNoFiller]

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[Miamirules]

Why 30 ? 

[Thorborg]

This was a friday release ... ( bad ) and the last one for me. I sold all my 77k shares. After 2 years waiting since emblem aquisition this crop was suppose to be the final step before profitability... Management lie to us with bought deal offer,  kin slip launch and outdoor harvest crop. Good luck next step is bad Q3 and 25 million of debenture debt due in February 2021.

[Miamirules]

They delay kinslip launch probably because they knew of this black cloud .. Look for them to announce 12 million in revenue and multiple new sku's .. im sure also they will announce a few new deals with Germany , Poland , Africa , South America .. In the end they have to execute on their promises .. GMP update would be nice ! 

[IMB]

your estimate,I feel, is too high. They will have revenue of around 8 million, I think. The biomass number will be half of what I thought it would be of 12 million. I am very disappointed with how this has emerged.

[Miamirules]

Medical revenue (emblem) is way up .. The clinics is way up in revenue . Recreational should also be way up .. Wholesale your right will be way down.. 10 to 12 million makes sense .. Acnos Germany revenue started in september will that be included .. Cannpacific revenue , One plant revenue .. How will Aleafia disclose their revenues from their affiliates.. 

[stocktracker101]

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[ThunderLips1]

The way this has been trading tells me that there will be write downs and a future raise to pay off debt. There is a huge glut of pot on the market so why is everyone here disappointed about the amount they harvested. Most of it will end up in an incinerator anyway. My prediction is a big loss due to write downs and a raise in the low 40's. 

[ShakngMyHead00]

The way this has been trading tells me that there is still so many more great things to come. There is no huge glut of quality pot on the market and all the AH's harvested product will be sold with ease. Keep in mind, rumour has it most of ThunderLips investments end up in the incinerator anyway. My prediction is no more write downs and a strong postive Q4. Not to mention a huge bump in kg

[stocktracker101]

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[rad10]

  Wow a series of facts from a credible poster / honest former bag holder.   AllBSnofilter - how come this company is always 1 quarter away from profitability?  

[Miamirules]

Honestly Geoff Benic talks a great game but he isn't the amazing business man he thinks he is ! He loves the attention like Trunp does but he doesn't have a business mind like Trump! . Instead of actually working by getting a line of credit of 40 million from Bmo like Organigram did . He took the sneaky lazy devious way by doing an offering with new warrants.. Geoff your a disappointment

[maramos98]

I interpret this statement to indicate that out of 66,000kg only 12.5% were attributed to outdoor. "biological assets strains at the flowering phase were on average 74% and 12.5% complete for indoor plants and strains and outdoor plants respectively. As of June 30, 2020, it was estimated that the Company’s biological assets would yield approximately 66,000 kilograms of medical

[Francoic]

Hopefully they will harvest 1,500-2,000 kg per month in the Niagara Greenhouse which would result in around 40,000 kg harvested in 2020 for sale (including Port Perry).  If Aleafia can sell its production at retail, at $ 4 / gr for flowers and $ 6 to $ 8 for medicinal and 2.0, no problem because that would allow revenues of more than $ 200 million in 2021 ...  However, what is

[ThunderLips1]

Grow all u want but means nothing if u don't have a buyer

[AllBeefNoFiller]

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[AllBeefNoFiller]

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