Opinion: OUTPERFORM
12 MONTH TARGET PRICE: $6.75
Operational Update
? Angle’s most recent operational update discussed 3Q12
volumes that were slightly behind our forecasts (14,200
boe/d to 14,400 boe/d range comprised of 45% light oil
and liquids) due to delays and unexpected downtime,
however behind pipe volumes and its 4Q12 drilling
program should help Angle meet the low end of its
16,000 boe/d to 16,500 boe/d exit 2012e guidance.
? Based on field estimates, current production is estimated at ~14,400 boe/ (48% oil and liquids). Angle
estimates a further ~1,300 boe/d of tested production
volumes are scheduled to come on-stream by mid-October 2012, bringing corporate volumes back to the 15,700
boe/d range.
? At its Harmattan Cardium play, total production currently stands at ~1,100 bbl/d of light oil (from 14 wells)
with ~600 bbl/d (stabilized IP(30) projection) of behind
pipe production to be added in October from another
4 (4.0 net) development wells that were drilled in the
region.
Financial Outlook
? Our 2013e outlook considers a $140 mm capital program that will deliver volumes of 16,400 boe/d and
cash flow of $142.0 mm or $1.75 per diluted share. Total
debt is expected to remain flat in the ~$225 mm range.
Investment Summary
? Despite our recent minor revisions, the stock is currently trading at 5.3x 2012e DACF or ~$35,000 per flowing
boe, which is a significant discount to the group median
average of 6.8x 2012e DACF and ~$45,500 per flowing
boe. While we are showing some of its peers generating
stronger production per share growth rates, we would
suggest Angle’s improving netbacks and lower risk
drilling profile are defensible reasons for this valuation
gap to ultimately narrow.