Ainsworth Lumber Co Ltd ANSBF

osb at 295

[mapmaker]

dont quote me on this as i am not positive but i think $220 is the breakeven point for osb for Ainsworth.

i sold another tranche today. I don't feel comfortable doing it but I think a BIG correction is coming up if there is no substancial news int he near future.

The downward spiral in structural panel prices was unabated. Prices of OSB continued to tumble, as ample supplies weighed heavily on the market. Most producers had short order files and struggled to pull orders from their customers.

 

(f.o.b. mill prices)

This Week Jun 14

Last Week Jun 7

Year Ago 2012

 

North Central 7/16-inch Oriented Strand Board

295

312

252

 

[estebancaballo]

What is the basis for your $220 b/e estimate M? As for the ample supplies of OSB I wonder if this is not just a short term phenomenon......housing starts in the US still are climbing and have a long, long way to go to get back to normal. Pent up demand for housing must be huge given the very low volumes of construction/sales over the last 4 years. Lumber co's seem to go down in the summer