Post by
CaneIsAbel on Oct 10, 2020 6:21pm
Buying and Selling Aphria
Aphria to me was long a term investment. I seen it as an emerging market with no where to go but up. Canadian legalization was on the horizon and I was sure US would have been legal by now. Unlike pharmaceutical stocks like Zynerba which crushed me, I was sure Aphria would triple post speculative phase. Some stocks are best played and sold off while they remain speculative like SRNE for example. Aphria was never one of those stocks to me. Now hindsight, myself and I'm sure many of you would have done much better selling Aphria following the three day rule. Three days green and sell, three days red buy a little. Holding long term turned out to be a disaster. I chose to ignore my core position time and time again and make weekly trades. Had I sold my core postion and re bought over and over, Aphria would have been a gem over the years. Even the past quarter I had an overwhelming feeling sell and pick it back up after earnings. The problem with Aphria is, time and time again the winds blow in such a way to make us believe this is it and the rocket ship is taking off. Time and time again, it proved to be false hope. A long term sell strategy and maintaining that strategy no matter what stock you invest in, is a much safer bet and profitable. Even after writing all this, I truly have to say this time is different. I feel Aphria made it through the worst of the worst and we reached the gates of Berlin. We couldn't know in the past stores would be so slow to open in Canada's most populous province Ontario. We now know stores are opening in droves across the country. We now know , Aphria is cash rich and the leader in brand and value. We now know Aphria has the most profitable and leading global presence with a major foot in Israel one of the highest cannabis consuming countries in the world. We know Israel is set to legalize very shortly and the bills are moving forward in government. We now know there is an election in America which could bring decriminalization on a federal level allowing states to have stronger decision making in cannabis. The safe banking bill also was approved and more bills are being tabled by Democrats. USA will be an open market soon we know IT WILL HAPPEN. With CC Pharma and our EU certification, the whole of Europe is at Aphrias taking. We know from retailers that Aphria brands are flying off the shelf, we took the lead in recreational. We know Aphria has been scrutinized and forensically analyzed more then any other company and we cleaned up all the skeltons in our closet. Yes dilution sucks but the bright side is Aphria is able to raise money from institutional investors when other Companies couldn't borrow a nickel at this point. We know consolidation is coming a merger with a company like Canopy may be the natural course things are taking. We know aphrias market cap is far higher then its good will on the books making it a very safe play. With over 400 million in the bank and some of the highest revenue quarter over quarter we know things now about Aphria we could only guess before. Now I feel the time has finally come for this stock to be where it always should have been prior to the short. I think if anyone is on the fence about taking a position in Aphria, now is the time. Take it from someone who has watched in agony this companies ups and downs the past two years. All we need now is Irwin Simon to prove his salt and put that diluted money to work like buying a US non pot company to pave the way for when the time comes. We need Irwin Simon to do a little on his part on the things he's promised and bring us the deals and whole sale contracts. We need Irwin Simon to find us triple the business Emblem was and we need him to do it Now. If he dilutes and buys a company then it makes perfect sense to raise the cash. We been waiting patiently with Irwin Simon and we need him to be out there more on Cramer, Bloomberg and the press talking about Aphria and everything it's doing. He need to be transparent about deals he negotiating and has to reiterate to the public weekly how great Aphria. So far we haven't seen him doing any of this and hopefully this is what he's working on and good things are coming. Good luck longs
Comment by
makemoneynow on Oct 10, 2020 9:05pm
an excellent sumation of Aphria Cane...and justified...to me anyone feeling this is the time to get out is just not looking at where we are now...this isn't thecompany of this time last year...this is now the head turner of the entire sector...they all know it and would be a god send for any company to join APH at this point....good on ya for laying it all out Cane
Comment by
makemoneynow on Oct 11, 2020 11:11pm
good lord if I didnt already have $50k invested here i would be certainly buying in at this point in time...to be bailing now? well if you do check back and see where we are in a year if not 3 to 6 mths! lol i took everything out of HEXO and AURORA and put it all with APH.....GLTA
Comment by
Matteo1234 on Oct 12, 2020 5:18am
I own a bunch of aphria here. To be honest I am worried about earnings. Why? There has been a price war on ocs. Less money per gram. Also german sales might not be calculated in this quarter. Wondering if I should short equal U.S. shares today to hedge. Any input appreciated.