Post by
IrishCanuck on Nov 09, 2020 2:50pm
Upcoming catalysts to break through Aphria's ceiling
I never bought pot stocks before October 2019 because it was all hype so it was impossible to evaluate the businesses. I regret missing the run up, but look back now over the graph of the last three years. December 2018 was the bottom of the Citron short report and we've completely cleaned house now. I thank Citron for forcing Aphria to be the first to come back down to reality and Irwin Simon for turning us into a lean machine.
We're back to share prices in November 2019 when all major producers were posting massive losses. We climbed out the rest of of 2019 and ran up again into our January 2020 quater, then got dragged with other producers reporting in February, then the ultimate market meltdown in March.
We are still paying for the sins of the Citron short report, but we're right at proper book value and keep hitting the ceiling at $8.00 CAD the last two quarterly reports with the run ups.
Look for this momentum up to continue up after all the producers finish reporting losses in November, we close the deal with Sweetwater in December, Santa Clause rally late December, influx of cash into the market in the new year, January quarterly report with increased medical sales in Israel, Germany and Poland. The new Biden administration begins January 2021 and most importantly the winter of Covid will be vanquished by months of advancements on treatments and vaccine manufacturing entering the spring/summer. We will have minimal capex expenditures in Q2, then baseline free cash flow begins Q3 (December 1st) with increased EBITDA from Sweetwater and no mention of the money we spent on Sweetwater until Q3 report in the sping.
As long as this current Q2 report comes out well and outweigh's the weak sales reported in HiFyre data (already addressed by Simon/Merton in October's conference call) then we will blast through the ceiling. Price targets were recently rasied so we will have our strongest run up into the January quarterly report. As long as no external factors drag us down (Canopy and Aurora seemed to find a footing this morning, Tilray later maybe?) we have estabilished a very strong floor ($6.50 - $7.00) so hold the line. Good luck longs!
Comment by
Ventura2020 on Nov 09, 2020 3:16pm
Good summary, Irish! I agree, good solid company now. I will be jumping back in once the dust settles. Cheers!