Aphria Inc. APHA

Portion of CIBC updated Opinion.

[probowler900]

EQUITY RESEARCH April 12, 2021
Earnings Update APHRIA INC.
Quorum Questions: Still Expect Deal To Close, Softness May Create Buying Opportunity Our Conclusion Today’s focus from management on voter encouragement suggests that there is at least some uncertainty on whether the proposed APHA-TLRY deal passes on its first attempt. We expect the biggest hurdle is attaining the required quorum for TLRY (50.1% of shares outstanding must vote). To be clear, we believe the deal eventually closes and creates an industry leader with potential for $100MM of synergies and a highly profitable entity with a leading share in Canada and Europe. We view today’s sell-off as overdone. This continues to be an industry that thrives on brick & mortar sales, and store restrictions have had a meaningful impact, which we expect to ebb by the summer. We reduce our price target to $23 (from $28), and APHA is rated Outperformer.

[skyplt]

Disappointing but not entirely unexpected. At least Stifel (and ghostinthedark...credit where credit is due) had the ability and foresight to see this coming and warn before earnings. This is a harsh reminder that most analysts are only good at forecasting yesterday's weather. I have adjusted my sell order accordingly (24CDN). Once again I find myself sobered by the volatile nature of this

[CommonCentsforDollars]

That is like giving Greasy Grego credit. Hilarious! Grabbed a few TLRY traders in this mornings pre-market @ $16.28, a beautiful bounce. 

[CommonCentsforDollars]

Just zapped the traders $17.97. Holding my long position. Refreshed my trader powder. TLRY has a support level at $17.18 that it will likely test again later today or tomorrow. The TLRY chart is the far more important chart to look at over APHA. That is where the volume is. eom momo