The Fed cuts rates on September 18th and the 2 and 10 year treasury were at 3.61% and 3.71% respectively.
Today the 2 and 10 year are trading at 4.264% and 4.31% respectively. This is not suppose to happen. The Fed is suppose to follow what the 2 year is doing.
The 2 year is telling us where Fed funds is going to be in 2 years time. Today, Fed funds is at 4.58% which is telling me the Fed has only one 25 bps cut ahead and that's about it. Jerome Powell doesn't call the shots and he must follow what the bond market is telling him to do.
It's worth noting that in past hiking cycles, the Fed raises rates to reduce the velocity of money. Put another way, to reduce spending in the economy to slow down inflation. Has the US government reduced spending during this hiking cycle? The clear answer should be no.