Old API Wind-down Ltd - Ordinary Shares ARLZQ

Picks like ARZ come around very rarely

[Systemtogo]

ARZ is like looking in a mirror at AUP. Near same 52 week low and high with multiple insiders buying in large chunks. Lots of hype around ARZ's drugs. I don't care what it does today or tomorrow but over the next few weeks this thing will be back over $5.

[GoldenDilemma]

Based on what metric? Where is 100% growth magically appearing from?  I don't get how emotions narrate some sort of price direction... "oh wow it's down, IT MUST GO BACK UP!!" 

[kuatolives]

Insiders can be the most deluded of all investors. Look at Ackman. Also, you have no idea what Adam's personal finances are like. If he's up millions in other investments, buying a chunk of ARLZ presents little risk because he either A) gets the upside in a rebound or B) gets the writeoff if/when he takes the loss.   Yes, it can be a measure of confidence, but I wouldn't put too

[snootchybootchy]

As per Mr. Adams' press release this morning, it sounds like there will be more news that will be released before the Q1 numbers come out.  Could be updated Yosprala sales numbers or perhaps news of an acquisition.  Even some good news about the Teva lawsuit would help burn the shorts a bit.  There is also going to be another article from Mr. Goldman on Seeking Alpha this week

[GoldenDilemma]

Shorts run ARLZ. Stop arguing otherwise. Go look at the chart. Short term blips for SP appreciation are irrelevant: you made it clear you aint trading it.  So, as a long, it is absolute garbage. Each catalyst has been shorted - why does almost 2 years worth of data supporting this suddenly become invalidated today? The shorting stops when they are proven wrong and SP is derisked. Not

[Systemtogo]

Fundamentals don't matter for anything. Half the time I don't even know a companys name when I invest in them. If you don't have inside information then you're just throwing darts at a dart board. The next best thing us retail investors have is investing based on what insiders are buying. When one member of the board is buying it's not much of a signal but when everyone is

[GoldenDilemma]

A lot of projecting. And a lot of misunderstanding.

[GoldenDilemma]

But, for starters, let's look at an ~80% depreciation on ARLZ since August 2015. The sell off has been long, slow, and steady. And it's clear why it's happening unless you refuse to even consider the short (bear) hypothesis because projecting fantasies on the ARLZ story is a lot nicer.  Surely there must be some reason for that depreciation, no? Insiders were buying the entire

[Systemtogo]

Management weren't buying all the way. You can refer to the following chart to see when they bought. I'm not basing my philosophy on ARZ, I'm basing on every pick I see that follows this system. AUP wasn't an anomoly, it's the usual. As well, ARZ went up to over $8. No stock ever goes up in a straight line. Again refer to the chart and see the significant upwings ARZ has been

[GoldenDilemma]

No comparison between ARLZ and AUP. The latter does R&D. The former has debt and a drug portfolio shorts deem worthless. But, again, fundamentals don't matter, right?  ARLZ market cap is currently worth less than what they paid for Toprol XL. What message does that send to you? Think it was the longs who sent that message??  I do not care about insider buys; nor do the shorts.

[GoldenDilemma]

Sorry, should have clarified, the former (ARLZ), is specialty pharma. A well loved entity within the bio sector, especially if they take on debt to sell drugs (and, even more love if those drugs face generic competition). 

[Systemtogo]

So you buy your stocks based on earnings? Good luck with that. I always go against the sheep. 

[GoldenDilemma]

Please point me in the direction of where I said that...? ARLZ has a lot more to do with earnings. In fact, based on earnings, they did well in the past Q. Doesn't matter, though. 

[Systemtogo]

For someone who misunderstands it's unbelievable how many times I'm right. It's actually the only system worth a damm in trading.