Antibe Therapeutics Inc(Pre-Merger) ATBPF

Keep this in mind LONGs ...

[MrMugsy]

If you take a look at peak sales for 346 acute ...

Let's assume it peaks around 2041 followed by a drop-off and then some years of modest recovery.

I see peak annual sales around $7B-$9.5B (assuming market growth of 3.5% annually and we get 15-20% of the market).  I think 15-20% market shares makes sense assuming we get the best-in-class product predicted by Phase 2 A/B results and with all the hub-bub surrounding opioids and NSAIDs - TBD).

That's about double the peak sales that was expected for chronic - because chronic only had 5-7 years of IP protection whereas acute will have the full IP protection (with decreasing coverage).

Just something to think about and why "going after acute" made the best strategic sense based on what we knew after AME.

---------------------------

Waiting patiently on the commercial study to either agree/disagree with that estimate.

[themagicbox]

Slight correction to your comment: *we have the best in class NSAID*  Having said that, remember folks, perfection is the enemy of good. We dont have to be the "best", we just have to be better than what already exists. I promise once ATB-346 hits the market, it will be used "chronically" and you'll see NSAID related GI complications disappear. Liver enzyme elevation

[Wriggles]

" I promise once ATB-346 hits the market, it will be used "chronically" A intriging comment.  Can you elaborate?

[themagicbox]

I thought it was self explanitory but sure. I am alluding to off label use i.e. it will be taken for longer than 2 weeks. w.r.t pain, in medicine "chronically" means > 3 months. 

[Wriggles]

Thanks for your response Magic. I was referring more to your thoughts on why Oten would be used off label for chronic. I don't necessarily agree with this point of view.  Oten is being developed as a prescription drug. Use for chronic would require a doctor's collaboration...a risky venture given ATE's liver history.   The AME LTEs were more concerning than they might

[themagicbox]

There is alot to unpack here so I'll take it one by one. The "liver history" that you are alluding to is likely the issue with paid participant from the ph1 trial. That individual was polypharmacy trial participants i.e. he was in more than one clinical trial, lied about it, and had a history of cholecystis (reference ~16:30 mark: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_3heP7ol0A

[Wriggles]

It was not my intent to get into a long discussion...more to point out that the AME LTEs were much higher than those previously experienced during trials and that chronic likely has been relegated to the back burner for valid reasons.   You can find the following quote in Section 5.3  Hepatotoxicity of the prescribing information for most NSAIDs, and in many other sources (e.g

[themagicbox]

I appeciate the discussion and the links.  As a prescriber myself, general rule of thumb is to go low and slow especially for the elderly population and repeat blood work on routine bases (liver issues usually Q3 months); this rule also applies for off label use. However, it will be based on balance of risk, benefit, and patient desired outcomes.  To your point, DILI due to

[MrMugsy]

As I understand it - minimum effective dose is dead - now they are letting acute lead the way to see if higher dosing can be used for chronic. - higher dosing - reduced frequency - assuming that means more recovery time between doses Some sophisticated regimen control that I understood might be patentable. If that path doesn't work then new chemistry is likely in the cards and that could

[cashworx22]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy