Antibe Therapeutics Inc(Pre-Merger) ATBPF

Concentration

[TheMadMonk]

It is going to be interesting to watch what happens to the stock price of ATE if and when we have positive results from P2 next spring.  Over the last two years there has been significant concentration in the shareholder base.  With virtually no new investors in the last two years, 10-20% of the outstanding shares have been sold by smaller short-term shareholders and scooped up by larger long-term shareholders.  Plus with the cancelation of millions of warrants, there is even less supply weighing down the stock price.  If this stock starts to run, after results are released there could be explosive torque in this name since there will be much fewer shares available for sale.  We saw an example of this the last two weeks with very low volume, the stock price rose approximately 32% from 46 cents to 61 cents with just a small amount of buying interest.  What would happen if investors tried to purchase half a million or a million shares?

[MrMugsy]

So true MadMonk. Exactly what a few of us have been doing over the past year and a half ... realizing there is no market here and taking advantage of the sellers. Once demand returns - we are sitting pretty. At least ... that was the goal.  Time will tell !

[Benedictus]

Yes, certainly some upside potential moving toward p2 readout but I think management set the cap with the exercise price on those 3.1M extended warrants, which I expect them to extend yet again prior to December expiry. Around $100M m/c seems about the correct 1:10 ratio on a $1B peak for acute. 

[MrMugsy]

Just remember how conservative the numbers are if acute wins - global industry is $13 BB for post-op and we're looking at 50% of that market.  Then take 30% of the remaining $12 BB acute markets we're aiming at. Or simply look at 40.1% of $25 BB in markets.  That's $10 BB annually if OTENA is a blockbuster. Now take half of that ... just to be conservative ... or ... $5 BB

[Benedictus]

Mugs, I'm certainly not arguing the potential could be much bigger but I'm more comfortable using past performance metrics for basic assumptions. A successful p2 for $4B chronic enabled the stock to peak around $400M (give or take) so 10% of peak US I believe is a fair assumption for successful p2 acute. I'd also imagine momentum traders will exit in that zone as well due to risk

[MrMugsy]

There are a few other opportunities that will play a roll if/when acute has success and they are as follows: 1.  an additional group of buyers who try to stay away from NA medicines because of the dangers associated with NSAIDs and opioids. 2.  Doctors/patients who limit consumption for fear of NSAIDs and opioids. 3.  a move to chronic for OTENA ... be it for full chronic use or

[baggerx99]

whata 100 mc??? 1B rev with a 10 multiple would be 10B m/c.....$20/sh....extrapolate for extra rev's and chronic factoring explodes the sp upward.....imho