Post by
nizza on Jun 17, 2024 2:11am
the right price at the right time
If GB spoke of a minimum takeover price of USD 300 million before the revised PEA in 2023, it makes little sense to contradict this a year later after a significantly optimized new PEA and lower the possible takeover price to a speculative USD 1 / share, or USD 91 million.
Whoever does that. According to logic, USD 300 million before the PEA in 2023 means > USD 300 million after the new optimized PEA in 2024.
In my opinion, a takeover price from Fortescue that is too low would be a starting signal for other majors to enter a bidding process.
The hunger for copper is simply too great.
And then it can get expensive.
What is clear from the outset: Fortescue has a 31% advantage over outside majors. If Fortescue offers the market price, there is still a 31% price advantage.
If Fortescue is keen on the project and other majors bid, Fortescue can go 31% above the usual market price without losing any ground.
That can relax them a little.
But the takeover price should not be set too low.
And I agree: No shareholder - and I'm not just talking about the 26.2% retail/public float, but also the 17.5% Peruvian & high net worth, the 18.5% funds & family offices and the 6.8% directors-officers - none of these shareholders and certainly not the old shareholders from 2006-2011 have an interest in selling this world-class project, which is currently the 10th largest new copper project in the world, for less than it is worth.
That would be the opposite of what one would otherwise expect from shareholders.
Such behavior would be so untypical that I cannot expect it.
I, for one, would personally fly to Canada to torpedo any bad offer with my votes.
Comment by
ForesstGump on Jun 17, 2024 8:44pm
Of course. Just look at Copper Fox as a comparable. It has a market cap just under 180$ mil and was at around 140 mil 2 months ago, and even went up as high as 300$ mil market cap on huge buys just last month.. Anything can happen here.