Advantage Lithium Corp AVLIF

Aussi board- shorts depressing LI stock shares

[goodtoreadthis]

It is not just Pilbara that is being greatly shorted. GXY, ORE and to a degree MIN have also been under some short attack. IMHO the shorters are taking a stand against the price of lithium in the future, they prefer to believe the oversupply situation over the story of a rapidly growing market.

GXY has just under double the percentage of shorts compared to Pilbara, but were just given a shellacking with the sale of a non important asset for $280m. The main weakness with GXY is the relatively short mine life of Mt Caitlin with only 7.9Mt in the reserve, but they are undergoing a major regional exploration program and are likely to find further spodumene keeping that plant going for years (IMHO).

Last year shorts were over 20% of ORE's shares, down around the $3.20 level in June/July. It was mainly short covering that helped the SP rise to over $7 at one stage, and allowed them to do a deal with Toyota for $7.50/sh. Even there short interest has risen from 6.5% to over 11% since January.

Even MIN has had short interest rise from less than 1% to around 4% over the last couple of months.

I suspect the shorting is coming from the US where the take on EVs seems to be different to everywhere else. Tesla has fallen in price from $360/sh in January to about $280/sh recently as questions arise about their production abilities and debt levels. In the US it seems that Tesla is everything about EVs, while not paying enough attention to what is happening in the rest of the world. The investment banks in the US seem to have lower growth rates assumed for EVs than what the car manufacturers outside the US are planning and spending money developing.

In the US Albemarle have 11%+ short interest, SQM have over 22% short interest, so it is not just us that shorters are taking aim at. It is the entire industry.
https://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=SQM&submit=Short Quote

As lithium batteries continue to be used in greater quantity than those IBs in the US forecast, IMHO there will eventually be a reversal in what the shorters are doing, most likely causing lithium boom 3 as the price of lithium products rise BECAUSE the high short interest will have reduced potential production increases. As can be seen by the shorts covering in ORE last year, they can and do get it wrong!!

Another possibility, not far off the realms of conspiracy theory, is that oil interests in the US (and maybe around the world) are deliberately targeting lithium miners to stop the rapid development/uptake of EVs as they see an EV future a huge threat to their industry.
Much more likely than that though, is that they believe their own rhetoric about the recent tight oil (shale fracking) growth (and so do the IBs) as producing long term cheaper oil, so EVs will remain too expensive on a relative basis and consumers will not go for them.

Whatever the reason, IMHO the shorters have made a mistake on the short and long term future of lithium development, and all they will do with keeping a lid on the SP of lithium miners is hinder mine development, almost guaranteeing higher lithium prices as demand 'surprises' (them) to the upside over the next few years.

 

[100KInvestorEH]

I usually use shortdata.ca to follow the shorts.  https://shortdata.ca/?c=advantage-lithium%20corp.-short-sales&sym=AAL.V The risk of trading on the TSX-V is the herd like mentality.  Financial Institutions stay away from these types of companies because of the associated risk of a herd.  It would be great to see AAL move exchanges now that we have a better idea of the size of

[mikerosoft667]

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[JMark80]

The PEA will likely show it's one of the most expensive brine operations which is why they need the deep sand unit to work out. I'm confident it will and that the company will be acquired before they even finance the pilot plant. 

[mikerosoft667]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[JMark80]

It's expensive to remove sulphate when processing the brine, and it irks me when the company refers to the chemistry as excellent. The lastest presentation even erroneously said that it's a low sulphate resource. The NW is high (technically borderline high), but the SE is extremely high. People usually only focus on magnesium, but I believe there is now a method to extract magnesium as