GraniteShares Gold Trust BAR

Ups and Downs

[BCdude]

Well, the market did not like UGE's business update today. Admittedly, the bottleneck in bringing their substantial backlog into production is frustrating, although it seems a lot of that stems from what is going on in Maine. The company reported a large number of Maine projects in 2020, and it seems that state has had to take a couple of steps back before, hopefully, moving forward.

It's possible some of the new states entered in 2021 (Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts) could take longer to deploy than expected, too. it all depends on how the state regulators move forward in planning and implementation.

On a positive note, New York continues to move projects through to production so we know that it's possible. I suggest patience. We know this will become a cash cow once these bottlenecks with grid interconnection start to be resolved.

Plus, it's worth noting that if UGE were to sell its current backlog onto the market for cash it would get substantially more than $1.20 per share. Based on assumptions that I made a few months ago, they would likely get more than $4.00/share.

Interesting to see them dip a toe into the Arizona market, too. Perhaps that state is further along the development and regulations curve?

GLTA

[1condor]

I didnt plan on adding more UGE but I am picking away down here at 1.20-1.25. 

[1condor]

Very ugly day for UGE with the news release and then topping it off with some financing. However I took advantage of the weakenss and managed to get my average price down to 1.24. Happy with that level for now...but also quite aware that more downside could be coming in the short term.

[1condor]

Anyone else on this board buy the weakness today? Seems quiet here for such a volatile day.

[BCdude]

I sold my recent purchases today at $1.34, a short time before the big selloff. Not because I don't feel UGE has immense value at this level. It's more that I already have a lot of shares and the ones I purchased recently were more for trading. I'm not selling my core holding. The financing doesn't bother me as it's largely non-dilutive. I just hope they're able to start

[alleyesonme]

I'm expecting poor financials Q4 and first half of 2022....management is doing everything right...Interconnection fiascos particularly in Maine has been going on since day one...the keys to the kingdom (interconnection) are in the hands of the competition (existing utility's), thankfully we have other strong seasoned markets and utilities with experience and fairness(New York State

[1condor]

alleyesonme...are you still holding this stock? I exited on Friday with a loss. Today looks brutal so far.

[BCdude]

I'm not Alleyesonme, but I'm still holding the stock and I suspect he is too. At least some of his shares. I bought a bunch in May 2020 for around $0.30 which I plan to hold long term. it's painful to watch this drop like a stone, but despite the recent hiccups in moving projects forward I'm taking the long view. Three to five years from now it should be multiples higher than right

[1condor]

BCdude..What caused me to sell on Friday was the increasing volume on the sell off. Again, today a high volume day and more signficant downside. I know that newsrelease and financing went over like a lead ball...but maybe there is more going on here? But you are right...why catch a falling knife...wait for it to settle down and reevaluate. Good luck on your long term hold.

[alleyesonme]

Hey guys..yeah I still hold a position..I did sell some in the 1.30 to 1.40 range..I like this long term...short term I forsee more pain ahead....I'll be looking to add in a big way once things settle however I don't expect this until late summer...I do follow all aspects of this industry closely and something could happen anyday that would prompt me to increase my position ..I'm

[1condor]

Wow...looks like a sell off before earnings. Watching the carnage from the sidelines. 

[1condor]

As a previous owner of this stock I am curious how bad the earnings will be tomorrow morning. Selling today (down to 94 cents for an intra day low) are likely a good indication of whats coming. The chart is very ugly showing a potential straight slope to 50 cents. Will it get there...hard to say...but its looks primed to move lower. For those investors still in...I hope management is able to pull

[BCdude]

A lot of this weakness is just overall market weakness. UGE is still undervalued when you look at the sale value of the backlog (preconstruction) or NPV of future cash flows of the backlog. What I personally want to see is line-of-sight on projects moving through the backlog, and a finanicial plan to manage negative cash flow until they can reach a breakeven point. Delays suck, but in the end I

[alleyesonme]

Recurring revenue margin at 89%....that's impressive...100 MW of operational assets is still on track by 2024's end according to CEO....cash burn of around 4.m annually is VERY reasonable and shows they are managing well on this road to profitability...this will eventually be a billion dollar company and I feel my money is secure with a longer hold horizon in play...