Banca I.F.I.S Spa BNCIF

Comparable ECS Vs CSK - MISTAKES ???

[newsimon1707]

Here I go... I am trying for my first comparable!  If you can try to find out if I am right or wrong? Where did I do some mistakes?   Are we undervalued like crazy??

TYPE:
-ECS is a regular mine they are developping in the USA... it will produce copper and cobalt.
-CSK is not a regular mine, they are processing stock and rock piles already on the property, only need to transport the rocks to the mill on the property. Exploration potential still there.

COST:
-ECS: I was able to find that their cost per pounds is 13,26$ US per pounds produced. 468,73 million US$
-CSK: We don't have the numbers, but if ECS with an underground operation cost 13,26$ US per pounds, we can think that CSK will be at a fraction of this since they only need to load the material on trucks and transport to the mill... then run it throught the mill.  Let's say we use half of their cost, so 6,63$ US per pounds. Gives us 72,16 million US$

CAPEX:
-ECS: their project has a capex of 147 million US$ + 65,31 million US$ already spent.
-CSK: we are not talking millions here, they can put the mill back with 200-300,000 CAD $... the numbers are tiny compare to ECS

LIFE MINE:
-ECS: 12,5 years
-CSK: as calculated yesterday, 10 years without new discovery following exploration.

NPV:
-ECS: pre-tax NPV 147 million $ US, IRR 27,7%
-CSK: NO PEA DONE

PRODUCTION:
-ECS:  35,356,415 lb of Cobalt and 57,384,700 lb of Copper, 46,858 oz of Gold.  800  tons per day production
-CSK: possible production with recovery rate  5,919,450 oz of Silver (93%), 10,884,150 lb of Cobalt (75%), 2,227,750 lb of Nickel (50%), up to 500 tons per day according to permit

GROSS REVENUE:
-ECS: 983 millions US$
-CSK: 291 millions US$

NET PROFIT: 
-ECS: 258 million US $
-CSK: take into consideration I estimated the cost per pounds (6,63$ US), and I am using 27% of income tax for the company:  291,000,000 Revenues - 72,160,000 cost - 27% of income tax = 160 million US $.

CURRENT MARKET CAP:
-ECS: 133,11 million US $
-CSK: 7,65 million US $

[newsimon1707]

I am probably wrong on numerous points... the cost per pound is the big question mark???But but, ECS will have invested a total of 200 million US$ to mine this place... total profits will be 258 million US$... we will need to spend peanuts to mine this place... total profits can be 160 million US$... let's say I am miscalculating 60 millions... still 100 million profits over 10 years... Now

[Goldfather]

Thanks Simon.  Thats a lot of work and That's a lot to evaluate. Will take some time. But needing only $200-$300 mil to get Mill operable isn't much. And the material totals in the stock piles is intetesting. I didnt know the totals. Isn't that why they're doing the testing to get a Resource Estimate.  I assume your numbers are from CompAny estimates. Anything over .50

[Goldfather]

The refinery they are all fighting over needs between $25-35 million dollars to be operational.  Soooo, maybe it was a blessing  CSK didnt get  the  refinery.?! Maybe  CSK would only buy it  (IF)   they could only get  it at  the right price.  AND, it could have been a nite mare re-habbing  the Plant, and  all the management it would need

[newsimon1707]

Second post I made yesterday

[newsimon1707]

This is what I posted yesterday...if I can save you time